40/70 Benchmark

I'll bet you $200 right now that I finish with more than 63" next season.

I'm fine with ratting the rest of the way...just increases confidence in a nice year, next season. No way am I going 6 consecutive well below average snowfall seasons, expecially in a warm ENSO following a triple dip cold. I would bet anyone a large sum of money.

His is kind of like my first outlook in 2014-2015....I nailed it sensible weatherwise, but missed the polar fields. This is with respect to the season to date and especially December. The aggregate DM period very well may finish +AO/NAO.

I actually had 28.5" in that....just saw an old facebook memory.

Looks like raindance has the best outlook IMO....had like +5 along the east coast and explicitly mentioned that storms in the east would lack cold air. Kind of right for the wrong reason with respect to December, though, as he had a +AO/NAO. I think we can put to rest that silly accustion about me copying his outlooks, though.

GEM has a system 2/1 and EURO 2/5.....at this point, don't expect anything.

Do you mean just in terms of snowfall? The December pattern was pretty good this year.....we just whiffed. That's what makes it tricky....It wasn't like 12/98, 12/99, 12/01 or 12/11.

Gotta admit, this may very well be a rat. I'm starting to lean that way more with each passing week. Although the mean composite was decent, I had years like 2001 and 1998 double weighted due to how good of a match they were to 2022. 2011 was in there, but not double weighted.... May need to reevaluate how I interpret those sensible weather analogs...was my first time using it, so I just went with the mean composite.

Here is the Final Call snowfall forecast map: Versus what actually accumulated: Snowfall amounts were slightly over forecast, as the initial area of lift was weaker than forecast, which resulted in less substantial snowfall than anticipated before the changeover to rainfall last night. The 2-5" forecast zone over the Berkshires, northern Worcester county hills and southern new Hampshire verified as 1-3". And the 1-3" area to the south verified as a trace to 1". Final Grade: C

Snowfall amounts were slightly over forecast last night, as the initial area of lift was weaker than forecast, which resulted in less substantial snowfall than anticipated before the changeover to rainfall last night. The 2-5" forecast zone over the Berkshires, northern Worcester county hills and southern new Hampshire verified as 1-3". And the 1-3" area to the south verified as a trace to 1". https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/01/wednesday-thursday-verification.html Grade that one a "C"...

I still have several inches....its high LE stuff, so some meat to it. Doesn't melt quickly. Its gone by about rt 128.

The only redeeming portion of January forecast was the activity....never dream it would be so warm.

I have 17" on the month, which is a hair above average, I think.

+.50" 19" on the season.

Hopefully it will be warm, rather than cold and dry.

I'm sick to death of trying to thread the fuckin& needles....like 3 months of it. I just want to throw the thread at someone and stick the fuck!ing needle in my eyeball so I don't have to watch anymore.

He is the most tolerable of the trolls IMO.....he actually brings something to the table when he chooses to do so.

Agreed. I'm out on this year as far as any investment.....doesn't mean I think that my idea of a big ending is entirely null and void, but rather any additional investment this year is going to require very high confidence.

Of course there is a bit of a break in the firehose of precip once the cold arrives. The Facts of Life..ya take the good, ya take the bad

I think that is probably the most hopeful correction vector that we could have this season.....god knows we do not want to rely on west coast ridging.

The last thing I want....I am scared to death of having a big event that first week of February bc it would probably end in divorce.

Boy... Thanks for all of the support, everyone. Hopefully I haven't ginxed anything by spiking the football too early. As far as winter goes...if something presents itself as imminent, then great...but the days of me waiting with bated breath are gone...until next fall.

1.15" rf after 1/2" of snow.

As someone who spends alot of time on it, I just feel like the people who don't expend any energy attempting it don't really have the right to entirely attribute anyone's success to luck. That is a loser's mindset IMO. There are many things that were thought to be impossible 100 years ago and still would be with that mindset.

I'm just not holding my breath any longer....that's all. I have a baby coming next week and am starting to look forward to fantasy baseball. I still think the season holds potential, but my I am no longer invested.