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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Grouping 1994 with 2004 seems absolutely laughable to anyone residing in SNE...two totally different seasons. I feel like you are getting carried away binning seasons together simply because they each had a + DM temp anomaly. The orientation of el nino is not "moot" because of a sample size of two that were significantly varied from one another in their own right. I had a 107.5" just north of Boston in 2005 with a 60" average.....that works as a modiki in my book.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks. Outlook #10 is underway....
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Do you know how to find historic wind data?
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    It definitely can for me...last year wasn't historically bad here....just a run-of-the-mill terd.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not that concerned about a blow torch....I mean, that Philosophy works if you just toss darts at a dart board, but I'm pretty confident it won't be your prototypical very warm el nino...at least not prohibitively so. Just want an active track for the area.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mean slide south of me...last weekend did and next weekend may. Don't have a good feel because I'm not tracking.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Raindance's outlook sums up my last 6 seasons.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't analyze Fall systems....still looks to graze south.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    My point is that Miller A whiffs are an illustration of a main concern this season.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably strong ONI and moderate MEI/RONI...just strong enough to bombard me with Miller up the (A) rse.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. I'll take 60"+ and run.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Weaker.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    The hope is el nino continues to shit the bed enough where the STJ is less prominent and we get more N stream reliant.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I've had it 6 years running...I'll lose it if it goes 7.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not crazy about the trend of these systems to slide south...been an issue in -PDO el nino seasons.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Look forward to delving into it sometime soon. Always appreciate your work.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Welcome back to my range.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think I remember @raindancewxsaying that a lot of the warmer eastern el nino analogs had warmer months October....so even though I know it isn't correlated to winter per se, it may be more important this year.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I walked that statement back....not well thought out response on my part. Its actually one of my analogs. I expect the polar domain to be different than 1972, but point taken.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have never been on board for a 2.0+ peak ONI and at this point I would be shocked were that to materialize.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I shouldn't say 2018-2019 is irrelevant...we are still in the cold phase of the Pacific and its actually a decent analog, but I expect some more traditional el nino interludes this year is all I meant.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Because that event never coupled itself....really not relevent.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    PDO isn't going to remain extremely negative through winter....
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