Need to start somewhere...I'd rather that than December 2015, but it's nothing that makes me interested. An inch of slush in Hubbardston....Booiinngggggg
Some folks look at my outlook track record and say I have a cold and snow bias, but its nothing conscious... just worked out that way. I think you guys agree I am pretty objective in season don't use weenie goggles.
Sign me up for 1940 1947, 1956, 1960, 1983, 2004, 2007 or even 2016. ...no skin off of by b***s if that composite works out. Only three seasons in that raindance list that I would pass on.
I have noticed that guidance has been initially too amplified few times over the past month...maybe something to keep in mind as the season approaches.
This is why significant snow is unlikely....you need a needle thread amount of phasing that is enough to back ageo, but not enough to congrats Dendrite.
DT pointed this out to Webber and his explanation was that that only speaks to summer and fall, not winter. DT said fair point and I referenced @griteater's research that it doesn't seem to chance much from Fall to winter.
Only example I found that shifted much was 2006...and it went WEST. I have yet to find any example where modest, Modoki like forcing went east and exploded.
Something to just keep an eye on because I have anecdotally noticed that the GFS has closed the gap and is beating the EURO more frequently of late. I'm sure the EURO is still superior guidance, but its not night and day any longer.
I don't know if you have read my work yet, but I would be utterly stunned if this went the way of 1994-1995 near the pole. Not happening. Pacific, sure.