40/70 Benchmark

Just think if come February its been very mild and yet I have continued to periodically list on many occasions several reasons why its about to get cold..you would have a field day. This is the equivalent to that.

Its not hitting 2.0 ONI.

I wouldn't expect a top 10 snowfall season...just in that sense maybe.

I feel like the forcing it being pulled west due to the warmth in the west PAC..this is also keeping el Nino in check.

Well, its not just about location of the forcing, but also the strength.....I know the 2009 el Nino was appreciably weaker at the point and given that modoki forcing is warm in the fall, that may have had something to do with it. I would need to delve into it more as far as location/distribution of anomalies, but I wouldn't expect it to be as cold in an absolute sense even given identical circumstances due to CC. Looking up the MJO data may be helpful. Would be interesting to dig into this if anyone has time...I have work and the outlook right now.

No doubt that there is some truth to what you are saying, as you always make great points. I am sure where is some impact due to the extra moisture, but I am also confident that the west PAC warmth is dragging the forcing west to a degree. That said, no one expects a cold winter with wall-to-wall modoki forcing.

Mind meld...heh...funny you say this and you will see why when my outlook comes out. Same page.

March did get there, but most areas still get porked by some nuances with respect to the evolution of that big surface low.

Looks to be basinwide.

I suspect we will see some nice stretches of 8 and 1, especially later in the season, but there will probably be some la nina like thaws.

This reflects the current value: Not a forecast. There are plenty of values above 1 in the forecast table, including the mean of .4. If you look at the data table, they are referencing the multi-model mean...I am using the JAMSTEC ensemble mean, which I normally do for EMI. They have JMA at .60 there, but that is as of 10/1....it ran again on 10/20 and was .72. https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html

Last Update from me before I publish next month. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/10/final-enso-update-of-fall.html

No EMI forecast..current value is about neutral. That is the forecast peak in February.

That is on par with the phase 8/1 November plots.

JMA EMI forecast has been slowly inching upwards since last spring....now getting near 2003 with a peak of .72 (.60 last month) in Feb.

Intelligence helps, but in my opinion, the characteristic most highly correlated with forecast proficiency is an open mind and the understanding that something can be learned from everyone. I have learned that the hard way after being really pig-headed for awhile.

Why would a weaker -AO block build further south than more extreme ones? Shouldn't the opposite be the case?

Who tweeted that?

Ditto.

Hopefully this set sup shop and we continue to get modoki forcing.

Not so much about age, but the experience and being tethered to a particular way of doing things, which happens to come with age.

Think back to the movie "Titanic"....when they were talking about how all of that captain's wealth of experience worked against him in that he could not wrap his mind around how to navigate a ship of that size around the iceberg. Circumstances change and there comes a time when a fresh, unfiltered perspective is preferable to the rigidity of an aging, seasoned professional.

I also feel like some of these older experts can become their own worst enemy in a climate that is changing as fast as Earth's is today....kind of like Belicheck with the Patriots in that he is so rigid and resistant to change at this advanced stage of his career that the blind adherence to the same philosophies and ideologies that have ascended him to the top of his profession is beginning to wok against him in a rapidly evolving league. The NFL and the climate are changing fast, and some of these elder experts need to adjust when they may lack the capacity to do so at this stage.

IMHO, denying this is the case is synonymous with arguing that CC doesn't exist. You can't have it both ways.... @snowman19was quick to mention GW in his list of reasons why this season won't be as cold as 2009-2010...well, GW is also takes up residence on the list of reasons why this particular ENSO events will be remembered as being relatively modest.