40/70 Benchmark

GFS has a sick crosshair signal in CT Sunday night...probably why it goes nuts. NAM is good, but a bit less ideal. Too bad I can't get the EURO OMEGA, but is probably even less of a pronounced signal than the NAM.

Sunday-Monday Snows: Final Call Focus West The Situation: The forecast rationale from First Call on Friday remains largely unchanged, as the approaching system will be forced to track around a large low pressure that will stationed in the Canadian Maritimes, which will cause its eastward progression to halt and veer to the southeast as it enters Westrern New England. This means that most of the accumulating snowfall will be confined to western New England. Expected Storm Evolution: Light snowfall should break out across the Berkshires around or shortly after midday today. 1pm Sunday: And continue to spread east throughout the afternoon. 4pm Sunday: The system will begin to feel the influence of the system over the Maritimes as it enters central potions of the region during the evening, and precipitation will begin to track more to the southeastward. 7pm Sunday: This will greatly limit measurable snowfall east of about the Worcester hills, aside from some potential areas of ocean enhanced snow on the south shore. 1am Monday: Snowfall should be winding down prior to the morning commute on Monday, so while it would be wise to leave some extra time, delays should be minor. 7am Monday: Sunday-Monday FINAL CALL: Sunday-Monday FIRST CALL: Issued Friday 12/9 @ 12pm Then during this coming week all eyes will shift to a large storm that looks to potentially bring mixed bag of precipitation to the region.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/12/sunday-monday-snows-final-call.html

Yikes, Euro is even largely an elevation event in NNE.

My thoughts haven't changed since Friday when so many were obsessed with suppression.

Thank god xmas is saved at the stake.

That was 12z....hadn't updated out that far yet.

Yea, its semantics. I think everyone means the same thing. We'll see what happens....we should have one more shot before xmas if that system rains.

Who said it can't happen? This is what I mean.....obviously you aren't consciously fabricating anything; that was sarcasm. I said BS because that was your term. My point is that I just don't see people saying that. Everyone seems to get that although unlikely, anything is possible.

No one ever said anything was impossible and you shouldn't fabricate bullshit, either. Lol It's been stated that it can still rain with the block, but it just takes weird shit...like that.

Just stop posting on it, dude. He knows what he is speaks.

That would be lovely....text book NAO block, and I get a sheared system to my west, and a phased rainer that tackles the block.

If its occluded junk, then sure....but the big runs are not occluded. It goes to town south of LI.

I mean, it can happen due to other fluky nuances, but it's not the largest risk in my assessment.

Seeing that block, I'll take my chances with consensus being too tucked vs being on the N edge at this juncture.

Makes zero sense.

Just look at the ensemble means.

GFS is just all over the map.

3K looks like my map

I mean, look at this...sums up the past several years for ne MA and se NH...I'm right on the S edge of that sucker hole.

Just more of the same for me...not much to say. I can brush this off, but if it rains Friday, I'll snap.

I feel like this will be especially common with respect to the off hour runs because they don't finish.

A lot of these runs are going to evolve in such a manner that they will induce mass weenie suicides at certain points, but you must keep in mind how anomalous this block is.