40/70 Benchmark

Yea, I don't necessarily mean that winter will evolve exactly like it, but rather that solar, extra tropical Pacific, ENSO and the polar domain are all decent matches. We know how analogs work....2009 is a great analog, but I don't expect 75" in DC.

Those who ready my work this month will know what I am saying....its the several year stretch of cool ENSO prevalence working in tandem with a warming climate that has reduced the strength of the Pacific dipole that fosters the development of el Nino and displaced the forcing west of what would normally be expected given the course or development of this event. This is what has lead to the dysfunctional warm ENSO paradigm that is evidenced by the huge spread between ONI and RONI/MEI.

It's not nonsense. The application of it is.

He is referring to the residual la Nina atmospheric momentum, which does exist, but I disagree with him about how it will manifest.....its keeping el Nino in check.

IMO, the best overall analog is 1965....EVERY other analog is flawed in some respect, but that one.

Oh, I actually saw that map and loved it.....totally agree. Yea, you should have elaborated in this thread and said below normal over SE MA, and not SNE....but I get it. Your work is mid Atlantic centric.

Well, this is why you elaborate and call it a "polar analog".....and btw, it's actually a damn good analog because while El Niño is basin wide, the forcing is more akin to Modoki, as its displaced to the west due to the lack of a bona fide Pacific dipole normally associated with El Niño. This is also why the RONI/MEI are so paltry.

Check this out.....this article is the closest thing to a "silver bullet" with respect to seasonal forecasting that I have seen. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013JD021343

And ORH county...yup. Either OES or hills.

Intraseasonal, sure...but the result was the second most prolific snowfall season on record for my area, as opposed to the first. Max snowpackwise it was number 1.

It wasn't hard for me....just kind of watched the historic pack rot away as the month invented new ways to not snow. Caused me to fall 12" shy of my 1996 seasonal record.

1957, 1965, 1986, 2002 and 2004 much better polar analogs IMO...all snowy in SNE, regardless of PDO.

Also, be careful with 2009...its a great overall analog, but I disagree about it being a great POLAR analog.....that year was ascending fresh off of solar MIN. This year, while it still may be ascending, it's just about to solar max....exotically negative seasonal NAO departures are pretty rough to find approaching solar max. Plug ins pedestrian -NAO into that season and there would be no SNE none job.

Same page in the mid Atlantic, but I do not expect below average snowfall in SNE. I see why you would go that way with the -PDO, but take a look at the +IOD years....most of the NE bone jobs were -IOD. Plus I see some residual N stream vigor due to the several year run of cool ENSO dominance. I agree that there could be a HECS that whiffs us, though. 57-58, 86-87, 02-03....all great in SNE and all basin-wide to Modoki el Nino following triple cool ENSO. I also feel there may be another warm ENSO next year.

March 2015 was pretty similar....cold, dry, shitty ending...though March 2015 was a bit better south of pike.

All good news. I want el Nino driving the forcing with the VP stagnant just east of the dateline.

High 70s..same as '13-'14

One of the most overrated for me..right up there with 1993-1994.

It looks like January 2003, which is just fine with me.

2010-2011...it was a blockbuster.

You thinking of '13-'14?

It will get close in terms of ONI, but I expect the forcing to remain more Modoki like on average.

Probably like .7

You are a low key @snowman19clone.

I still think we see a mild stretch mid month...guidance has probably over adjusted to a degree.