40/70 Benchmark

All I need right now is a mid Atlantic special to quit weather.

I only see one major potential.

I'm normally one of the better spots in SNE during la nina, but not these events.

Its been going on for years, though.

Agree. I am not in any way doing that....just need to melt after a squash southwest, then rain.

I'm not out on the season....just supremely frustrated after how this season has started following the last several years of misfortune. On paper, this pattern/season is still fine....but @Ginx snewx was asking me why my seasonal snowfall numbers were not closer to 2010-2011, despite the pattern being similar. This month is a perfect testament to just how special those seasons are. It takes more than just a pattern, but one complemented by exceptional luck. All of that said, just for context....Dec 2010 was very similar and then took off right after Xmas. This can still do that.

One more shot before Xmas, 1 more before NY...then at that point, the thaw is on the horizon.

All 3 of these la ninas have had the same underlying traits/have and have nots...tenor has been like dead-nuts same with some different indecies etc.. Rinse and repeat....if your locale isn't in the meteorologocial "click", then you just get the train run on you for 3 years.

I think these nuances are that can save the ORH hills and even the lower terrain WOR. Agreed. I don't think it will be enough here.

Such a disappointing evolution. Holy shit, do I need an el nino.

Quick, someone post a H5 chart from 12/27...I need to restore some semblance of faith in the long range.

I thought December would get off to a slow start, but end up with a few SWFEs...what I didn't realize is not much snow would precede the SWF.

Anyone east of the ORH hills needs to prey for a break with respect to the system on or around 12/23ish.

Shocking...its been locked onto this since 00z Sunday.

More are going to join me after Friday.

December 1992 is gone. Everything is awful but the GFS, which is still awful...though closest to not awful.

So far, so good....not perfect, but decent.

You are right about that. Last night was nice, despite coming up as a local min yet again.....but the 1" cover is tenous and its Monday AM...leg day at the GYM, too....so agree with respect to the mood aspect. Like I said, I see the argument for colder and will see how things look tomorrow.

I've said this before, but with each passing day I feel more like I just need to mouthwash this interminable and insufferable cool ENSO episode the fu&* out of the hemisphere before my luck will change. Just something in the DNA/footprint of this particular ENSO episode that just despises winer in NE MA/SE NH. Fu*&* it.

Yea, I would still feel okay in western NE. Agree.

That would be a feat in and of itself....having an -8SD NAO block, or whatever the hell it is...avoiding the prototypical "Grincher", yet still manufacturing a way to steer clear of a white Xmas.

Yea, day 4-5....doesn't change anything in my mind. From my vantage point, the inherent "potential" of this pattern belies the fact that it looks pretty damn tenuous for my area right out through Xmas at this particular point in time.

I get it...there is a block, its still 4 days out, blah, blah...plenty of time. But I just had a feeling all along that if this was going to work out for my area, then things would have looked better than this at day 4. My gut is that I have a bad feeling we are settling in on a solution and its one that is going to pork my general area.....again, albeit in a different manner than this past one did. That primary started to hang on longer with 00z Sunday suite and we've just been chasing our tail ever since....not good at this range. Again, this is with respect to my area....I get that those out west are still very much in play.

Christmas is saved