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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. The trend on the GFS was more encouraging than the one on the EURO IMO.
  2. I only look for a quick assessment of trends...that's it. I also look aloft, of course.
  3. In that case, let me grab Tiny Tim and rejoice I just feel like anyone on the CP is getting to the point where its like a cat running around in a circle trying to catch its tail......just obsessing over minute trends that may or may not be noise, but in the end really won't alter the forecast much in YBY.
  4. Hopefully the block exerts more of an influence. I'll do a First Call on that one tomorrow, but I think my preview map from Friday is the ceiling on that one.
  5. There really is not much of a difference at all from 12z at the surface....6" line goes from like Dendrite to maybe KCON. Nothing jumps out at me aloft...we need more than that.
  6. 1" total....no complaints. Nice, little festive first snowfall.
  7. Those maps are too liberal with snow....NARCAN will be worse....and more accurate.
  8. These are not big changes...its basically noise.
  9. Tell tale sign a storm blows in when you are inside of 5 days, people talk about "positive steps" and you look to see that it's still nowhere close to giving you snow.
  10. @512highIf you knew Wolfie, then you would get it.
  11. We have three more big shots this month...12/16, 12/23ish and probably something the week between xmas and NY. It's becoming easier to view a path to relatively meager totals this month is 12/16 largely fails. I still feel like I have a shot at like 6" 12/16, but needs work.
  12. After the last several years, I'm like a PV with a very warm strat and sky high SAI....very prone to major disruptions.
  13. 1/2" at home....looked like about 1" at the Burlington Mall, around 15 mi sw of here.
  14. Yea, I know you are usually very reluctant to point out what sucks
  15. If that one just before Xmas is rain, too, then I'll be in a rubber room.
  16. Nothing like a frigid airmass behind the rain....Regan era pattern.
  17. Euro us garbage, similar to last night. I think this one is slipping.
  18. Its over Lowell, about 10-12 mi to my SW.
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