40/70 Benchmark

Pretty doubtful this will be rain for alof of us IMO.

It delivered the rain with the pre xmas blizzard

Started off with fatties, now some shit growth, snow pellets....not sleet. 31.6....slight coating.

31.6/31.3 Icing up...

Down to 32.0/31.6

The OP makes sense synoptically in that it cuts off from N stream and rains, but thankfully ensembles say that is BS.

Right....the mainstream public's perception of it is what is voo doo. The science of it is legit.

It's not at all voodoo, it's just that it's much more complicated than people realize and is often misdiagnosed.

I didn't see it worthy of the time I usually spend on these things.

Yea, 12z EPS looked better.

For CT? Welcome to 3 days ago..

32.2/31.8

Down to 32.4/32

32.9

I've spent enough time on the winter for what has amounted to 2" of snow, so not doing a big write up on this nuisance. Coating-2" from the pike points north and inside of rt 128. 1-3" outside of rt 128 and 2-5" in the hills of northern Worcester county.

I'm content with this right now. Pieces are there to make that weekend a point of future meteorological reference for many years to come.

Agree. My money is still on this threat....like I said yesterday, if this one fails, then I'll admit that the season is in trouble.

Yea, like I said in the post....I know OP runs over a week out don't matter. I just wanted a shot of dopamine before bed.

Can see why no one mentioned the models...everything for the 14th looks worse, which is all I, and most, care about. Not that it matters right now, but outta work with covid and was hoping for late night model cinema.

Call me myopic, but it could rain three-eyed vaginas in San Francisco and I wouldn't have a fu@& to give. To each their own.

Awesome....see a couple of late posts and expect maybe a fun run for the 14th, and it's a west coast circle jerk.

It's not going to cut. The risk is mid Atl special. That one misses and this season is in trouble.

Mid Month Winter Mayhem Potential Looms Multiple Winter Storm Threats on Horizon It was discussed last week how changes in the tropical Pacific would lead to a reprieve from the la nina like regime and lead to a much more active winter pattern across the area. Current long range guidance continues to carry a rather emphatic three-pronged signal that is centered on mid month. The first system for next Monday looks to pass out to sea, as it does no look to have enough room to amplify in time given the lack of ridging over the western US and the significant confluence in place over se Canada behind this week's rainfall. European Ensemble Mean: GFS Ensemble Mean: The second system looks to make its closest pass Friday, January 13. And while it does pose more of a threat than the first system given some slight ridging in the vicinity of the Rocky mountains: European Ensemble Mean: Said ridging is very modest and still may not be quite strong enough to allow the system to amplify enough for a major strike of the area, especially with no apparent downstream low southeast of the Canadian Maritimes to slow downt he flow (50/50 low). GFS Ensemble Mean: But its the third threat that has been consistently modeled on guidance to threaten the region on or around Saturday, January 14th that poses the largest threat given a more significant PNA ridge out to the west to allow for more amplification. European Ensemble Mean: GFS Ensemble Mean: Stay tuned to forecasts over the course of the next week.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/01/mid-month-winter-mayhem-potential.html

That said, I also think its BS to just summarily dismiss what he is saying...that is as bad as the trollling. Just contest the point.