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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Zero chance.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I get that....I would rather keep a bit of la nina appeal in order to ensure some N stream assertion.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    That Aleutian Low on the EURO is really far back to the west...wow.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Who was it that posted info on GLAAM a bit back? I don't know much about that and would like to learn more...I think that may do a good job of reflecting what I am referring to.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ideally, it works like a synoptic overrunning event when the SW flow slams into antecedent arctic cold only in terms of ENSO.....so we have warm ENSO being met with resistance by the antecedent cold ENSO momentum in the atmosphere, which mitigates it enough whereas we don't get the overbearing canonical effect.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Personally, I am okay with a la Nina like gradient in December....I'll take my chances with that.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    The point isn't that I expect to to be lethally accurate, but that all of the global guidance is consistently signaling that this isn't going to be a typical blow-torch stronger el Nino. About as much as you can ask for...could they all fail miserably, sure, but would we feel better if they all photocopied 1997-1998?
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    My guess is that the EURO was led astray by the same issue that killed my forecast....a fraudulent warm ENSO regime. I feel like we are adjusting to that better and this event is appreciably stronger, as you have mentioned. Are the coldest models too cold? Probably, but I just want snow...I don't need Boston Harbor to freeze over.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, these...
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    What I like is that the fact that they signal cold bodes very well for avoiding a non-starter type of winter....odds are, we can't overcome a warm start and average +temps and NAO for DM in the aggregate, but will anyone care if we accumulate heavy seasonal totals?
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Where do you generate those Nino images?
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have said all along those December strat shenanigans aren't going to pay immediate dividends and likely get pushed back.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Makes sense considering how I expect December to unfold....look at the EURO .....+NAO. Cohen is just having an impulsive outburst, which people are prone to do on social media.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Someone run a composite of 1966, 1969, 1987 and 2003...it probably looks like the Euro.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree with this...good post. This, like the PDO analogs, is confirmation that this winter will be decided within the polar domain.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not really....98-99 was awful, 2016-2017 and 83-84 were meh.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was expecting that.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is what I point out in his Twitter thread and he never addressed it.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. This is why I feel like we will also have an active N stream this winter.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Webb is completely unhinged.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, no one is going super-cold. That said, sign me up for 1965, 1968 and 2004 from that composite.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that is consistent with my findings...not sure where he is coming from with this.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Apparently 1997 was a modoki because it had a high MEI.
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