40/70 Benchmark

Yea, I was about to post...its clearly not a frigid pattern, but that doesn't mean it wont be a snowy one....This is January, not April or November. I'll take my chances with that at peak climo over an arctic PV doing lake effect chases with @BuffaloWeather

That SPV extension was showing on ensembles last week, as I referenced it the blog update on Friday as the reason this potential is high end.

Butta' Face...that's the term for that girl

She didn't reside in Fox Hall circa December 1992, did she?

43.5 and shocked in.

Ceiling this month has always been el nino style HECS. Now, obviously ceilings often aren't reached, but I think we're due.

My window from early Novie was 1/6 to 1/20 to watch for a doozy....let's see how ot plays out. If that fails, then I will be worried.

Let me begin by stating I haven't checked long range ensembles yet...but I recall Will saying yesterday that there wasn't a big se ridge..

Not that it matters, but I don't think it would rain back that far west in reality...it doesn't tuck enough to induce due east flow.

Rehearsal of my synoptic gas chamber aside, it's nice to see a big one pop on an op inside of a week.

I'd literally quit.

...than do without your dopamine drip?

Not too worried at this point.

I wish something would bite, other than this winter.

This would be five consecutive well below average here, so...getting there.

Or doggie poo cores in NE CT.

Well, I can't control that....only deal with data that I can access. Probably....

I get that it may not be as big a drive of the pattern as it could be if centered further north, but its a lot closer to a modoki like el nino look (seen below) than some to the crappy looks.

That still looks much more like a nice forcing regime than a warm one.

Bottom line is that its a judgement call at the end of the day...but there are very few events, especially ones that aren't really weak, that are entirely confined to a certain area...so I tend to judge by where the concentration of strongest anomalies is centered, not necessarily minimum el nino/la nina criteria. Its the stronger events in which structure is more important because forcing is more diffuse with greater variance in the weaker events, so you don't want to have such stringent criteria in distinguishing what can be pretty pivotal differences with respect to type classification.

Some of us have been saying all along that the GEFS have been better with respect to the Pacific. I'm betting on that to continue, but we'll see.

Exactly...anyone looking for clarification, head over to my outlook thread and read the latest post, which actually uses the MJO filtered VP output from the Ventrice site: And while previous attempts have failed due to the deconstructive interference pose by cool ENSO's proclivity to relegate tropical forcing to the marine continent, there are drastic, albeit not unanticipated changes taking place. Here is the forecast for the progression of tropical forcing over the course of the first half of January, courtesy of Mike Ventrice: Note the steady progression of the the tropical forcing, denotes by negative vertical velocities steadily progressing towards the dateline. This is the polar opposite of modoki la nina favored tropical forcing, which is the milder type of la nina regime that that favors forcing in the maritime continent and mild conditions on the east coast.

I don't mean dire in the sense that its 60 for weeks...but just dire in that guidance is offering more PAC puke and no big potential. Still not convinced we don't see arctic air, but we don't need it.

This, in addition to the NY holiday, is why I stepped back for a few days....I don't buy the dire long term considering how I expect tropical forcing to materialize, but I know that would fall on deaf ears given the mood in here, so just didn't bother...aside from that last bog update prior to the new year.