40/70 Benchmark

Hey, @griteater, Have an update graphic through Sept/Oct?

We should make weenie emojis count as a post.

@brooklynwx99Draftkings is opening up a line for the over/under on Roundy quotes attributing the delay of the December cold to that one last WWB.

Dec ends up being a case of kick the can, I think....which will trigger a slew of tweet quotes from @snowman19and melt downs from the usual suspects.

I expect it to be major.

We need to make sure that PV disruption continues on schedule in early December, though....any later, and the impact of it will be delayed until after the new year...which is my default premise, anyway.

Looks good. December looks a bit compressed to me, so you wonder if that is more of an overrunning month focused on CNE/NNE.

Looks good to me.

I don't mean only, but its playing a role IMO....just my opinion. I don't claim to be able to scientifically prove it.

This makes sense because its during the winter that the PV descends and compresses the flow against the poleward drifting HC.

I really don't think it makes much difference.

Even before that, though, I think deeply -NAO seasons were pretty scarce. I guess 2010-2011 would qualify, too....going back and looking over 30 years. I would say 1995-1996, 2000-2001, 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 would fit the bill...2020-2021 wasn't quite extreme enough IMO. 4 going back 40 years, I would say...1986-1987 just misses like 2020-2021, IMO.

I am mixed on how much I buy into proposed impacts from CC, but one that I am increasingly adopting is the conceptualization that extremely negative NAO seasons are now exceedingly rare as a manifestation of it.... @GaWx Larry has posted numerous stats about how rare it has become (2009-2010 being the last) and it makes sense with the more compressed/faster flow making long duration/extreme blocks more difficult to achieve. Seems easier to pull off on the Pacific side, since its upstream and a larger domain space. Not sure if @bluewave's stuff about NAO blocks being displaced to the south plays into this.....maybe they are now frequently protruding out of the NAO domain space and this registering into the seasonal index less.

Maybe someone that brings a laptop can link you in...

.23 peak RONI. That season could have worked if it hadn't been in the midst of a monster cool ENSO stretch....which may work to our advantage this year.

Perfect example of why I have begun taking the RONI and MEI more seriously....I would not have whiffed as badly as I did that year because I treated it as a classic weak el Nino. It was warm-neutral per RONI and MEI.

Not for the NE.....but regardless, its a good analog.

What is your point? My comment was in reference to this statement: "Urals ridging in NW Asia combined with Aleutian Low is a base configuration for strat vortex weakening" I comment on what I see and he mentioned that the CFS was "trending", so it can be inferred that it was probably less favorable previously.

I picked 12/2, but it doesn't really matter to me....

Its that time of year again to meet up at Funky's in Worcester, as its a fairly equidistant locale. Choose a date-

That's a configuration for a great deal of blog-pimping by Judah.

Orientation is more important the stronger el Nino is...seasons that feature weaker and basin-wide events are predominantly dictated by extra tropical influences. Def. NOT black and white...that thought process is too "reductive", as @brooklynwx99would say. Its the seasons like 2009-2010 and 1997-1998 that can independently bias the seasonal pendulum to one extreme, so to speak. Think of ENSO as an orientation-intensity continuum.....the stronger and more biased to one extreme in orientation, the more influence the tropics have on the extra tropical hemisphere. Weaker and less biased in orientation have reduced proxy as it relates to the extra tropical hemisphere.

Watch December.....I'm not sure there has been an el Nino with a wintery month of December that went on to suck. I mean, one could argue 2009 for my area, but I will gladly take my chances with a similar evolution.

I have been saying this since literally July.

What he doesn't seem to grasp is that basin wide events are often decided by extra tropical forces, so it doesn't need to necessarily be a Modoki by the strict definition to essentially act like one....same goes for an east-based event. 1986, 1957 and 1965 weren't modoki, but snow lovers on the east coast didn't give a rat's ass.