40/70 Benchmark

This season compares fairly favorably to December 1955:

Well, I am going to finish the month of December with 2" of snow. Since 1950, there have been 6 other cold ENSO seasons in which my locale received 3" or less of snowfall during the month of December. 1955-1956: 2" with a seasonal total of 87.3" 1973-1974: 1.8" with a seasonal total of 44.8" 1988-1989: 2.6" with a seasonal total of 20.3" 1998-1999: 1" with a seasonal total of 41.9" 1999-2000: T with a seasonal total of 33.3" 2021-2022: 2" with a seasonal total of 42.5" This bolsters confidence in my seasonal forecast range of 60-70" because while the mean seasonal snowfall is only 45", it would be wise to hedge upwards given how the month of December actually evolved. Note the utter lack of high latitude blocking in the composite:

I would be surprised, yes. I do not expect anything more than a transient pig, nor do I expect an RNA month of January.

They mean the overall pattern.

At least la nina will finally relinquish its grip.

Never mind the fact that it likely needs to be done under the cover of night.

Looks like its a bit more PNA ridging that allows that little wave to dig enough....who knows.

I wouldn't worry much about it

GFS is a Methuen special order.....classic Miller B-East. That said, it probably ends up more of a Miller E....as in eat shit.

The EURO looks more par for the course for Methuen.

False. Pacific looked epic.

The future is uncertain, and when it hasn't snowed yet for much of the region, the default setting is reverse psych. I have 2" on the year after a -6SD NAO block..yea, I lost my shit, but you have to get over it and try to be objective moving forward.

Yea, same conclusion as me, only different angle to get there. Thanks.

The pattern will not be held in place by SST anomalies....they can help to sustain when everything else is favorable.

Bingo....the whole "jet retraction" concept eludes me, but I am confident that the Pacific will be good in January. If that is what delivers, then sign me up. Care to explain the jet retraction stuff?

I've been expecting pretty normal snowfall since November....when many expected the epic December, and I still do now....while the bipolar pendulum swings towards "it will never snow again".

Feb 2015?

Could I be wrong and they are right....winter totally blows? Sure, but I'll trust in the weeks of research that I did late this fall, rather than tie my emotions to bipolar long range guidance.

You can always find some guidance that sucks.....as I said, the GFS has done better with the Pacific this year. I'm not going to beat my head against a wall...like I said yesterday, the reverse psych gestapo that believes that it will never snow again is out in full force and there will be no convincing them otherwise until it does.

More favored in eastern QBO, which is part of the reason that I didn't expect one.

Remind me to stay home behind locked doors that week.

I only worded it that way because I had just made a post to the effect that although the season may play out similarly, its unwise to anticipate as much snow as we had in 2010-2011 and December is a good example of why.

Yes, SSW are a definite wild card...really all I meant to imply. But regardless of how it manifested (or didn't) itself in the pattern, I didn't expect one in the technical sense, so that would be a curve ball that may or may not alter what was expected in at least a portion of February.

Ditto.