40/70 Benchmark

For a variety of reasons lol

Just because folks only engage here to any great extent when it snows doesn't mean they sit in a corner trembling and urinating themselves the other 9 months.

I think they are connected.....modoki events are more favorable for blocking, and canonical less so.....I think basin wide events are more prone to extratropical forcing.

Total agreement. I think that has to do with @Typhoon Tip's working theory about CC making the globe more prone to fast flow.

I was among the worst that season, and the fact that I would take that set up and run should tell you something.

Your thought process is far too rigid and simplistic.... @brooklynwx99had the perfect word for it, which conveniently escapes me. Ideally, el nino would be weaker in order to ensure more N stream dominance vs the STJ, but it doesn't have to end as badly as 2010 did, either....we could have easily got hit with that sequence in February, and that season is remembered like 2002-2003, which was a similar el nino.

I meant to ask you about this yesterday, but got tied up. That jives with my thoughts....I am sure there will be a brutal period with RNA/+NAO mixed in, but it shouldn't dominate the winter, aside from biasing the DM departures positive. How did it do last year? And what is the DM predicated value this year?

Welcome to June.

I'm confident it will end up moderate. I would be surprised of the MEI remained weak...

You require a larger sample size to conclude that we need a very warm subsurface to reach super el nino status? I think we have a much better idea of the peak in mid October than we did last spring. You seem very confident in the ability to if the +IOD to foster continued development of el nino...why not highly anomalous subsurface warmth?

I'll take the hemispheric similarity and roll the dice.

Yea, use 30-50mb. Paul, I feel like your largest issue is that you tend to drown yourself in data......I mean, you are attempting to forecast a four month period at several months lead...be exhaustive in the sense that you cover everything, but don't lose focus of the larger picture, which is really what is paramount. You need to set a scope and stick to it. Relegating myself to the 30 and 5-mb levels that CPC posts is good enough for me.

Well, obviously its a long shot anyway today, but we did just have one 8 years ago, so a repeat is less likely.

Thanks; now I understand. This amount of subsurface warmth through September in the past has portended a moderate peak on average...a coupe weak, a couple strong.

I feel like this is my highest confidence outlook since my first one in 2014.

Its basin wide....region 4 is boiling, as well.

This is an interesting graphic that I would like to incorporate into my work....where is 2023 on this? Not sure I entirely understand..

Right...which I think is accounted it for by the modified temps....likely less of an inhibiting factor as the season progresses.

In terms of SST, sure...I don't think that he necessarily means "modoki" in the technical SST sense.

This makes perfect sense to me....no one expects that kind of sustained cold this year.

Yea, multidecadal PAC cold phase signal...no doubt. Any speculation beyond that is for the CC forum.

JAMSTEC is a wonderful resource of EMI info/data.

@weatherwizRead this. Preliminary Analysis of the Polar Landscape for Boreal Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather

I read up on that stuff over the summer.

Its very important for both...but its informative to analyze your modoki composites to gain insight into why there is variation within each composite. First of all, there is obviously more variance the weaker the event...secondly, factors such solar implications and other various influences, such as volcanic eruptions can play a role in modulating the polar domain that can supercede ENSO. NOTHING operates within a vacuum and there are ALWAYS competing forces at play...its incumbent upon the forecaster to resolve that.