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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    It should peak at moderate IMO.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Man, what a shitty day...
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sad day....lost a friend of over 20 years late last night/early this AM....got a sinking feeling when his brother called me on my way to work. Just brutal.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefully not.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    5.2" will do, but a jack, nonetheless....a CJ of water lol
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    True, though I was close this AM.....balmy first half of October, nonetheless.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, first half of October is indian summer.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, but its getting close with no end in sight. And I will do the honors myself.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Honest to god...I hope it continues because from about here on out, I am all eyes and ears for winter to tip its hand. There are going to be precip type issues, but just give me coastals.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree all around.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that incorporation of GW into the background of these analogs is tacit AFAIC...I am on record as not debating that point.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think 2001 was a decent analog last season and I wish I gave it more weight in the mean than I did..it was one of my better sensible weather matches.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks. I honestly didn't know...like I said, I only look back to 1950. I only mentioned 1925 because snowman and Paul Roundy mentioned it as a very good analog for this el nino, which they perceive as being a classic east based event.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe 1925 also meets that criteria...IDK. I only consider back to 1950.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    This kind of an outcome would make sense to me.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    So you don't think the MEI matters much... Okay, fair enough....the only example of what you are suggesting is 1965, which had a peak ONI of 2.0, MEI of 1.6 and RONI of 2.00. I think that is reasonable.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think its suspect bc +IOD correlates to canonical el nino and +AO/NAO. The increased moisture I can buy.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    @snowman19 Do you agree this is a fair assessmenet? I would wager RONI being a bit lower than that and MEI a touch higher.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    No doubt we see a jump between now and November, but I don't see it getting above 1.5, at most. I would say like 1.2 to 1.4
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think you have touched upon part of the reason why PDO and PNA are not necessarily always matched on a seasonal level.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe a meme?
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    You just happened upon one of my sensible weather analogs....entirely independent of this, mind you....I just line up the matching ENSO state years and sort out best temp and precip matches....1977 made the list for both. Keep in mind there are other seasons, so don't get the wrong idea....
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Some smoke emanating from a near-by chimney, football and Halloween movies and I'm set-
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I love the cool, rainy fall weekends....bring it.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    @ORH_wxman& @CoastalWx..any thoughts on this??
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