40/70 Benchmark

Is still too rushed? Maybe...its always been a matter of when, not if. I originally expected the fireworks in January, anyway

It's not just about model forecasting skill, though. This big block is not going away....do I trust long range guidance? No. But I do trust my ability assess the tropical landscape, and the tropics and to a lesser extent the stratosphere is not going to allow this to go to crap. Not happening. Now, if someone is going to yell bust because we don't end up with January 2011 or March 2018, then that is on them.

This still has historic potential.

Anything before 12/14 was always gravy....that's only the first few days of the post 12/10 that I cited last week.

Through an IMBY lens, I would prefer this over arctic flood gates pouring in. I'll take my chances here....the ceiling is immense.

Sorry, it was right after me,so got confused

Having some factors being more hostile than others isn't prohibitive to snow....I'm mot saying its December 2001. All I mean is that it's not frigid and the coast may squirm early on. The RNA is relatively hostile this month...on obviously that doesn't mean it can't snow.

Yea, things have trended a bit more towards the type of progression that I had envisioned last month for the month of December....with the need to fight the Pacific alot this month, which favors up and in....at least initially. Albeit the NAO is still more aggressive earlier relative to what I had thought. Anyway, December looked to me like a slow build up for alot of us and that looks to be the case. Nothing is "cancelled", troll lens not withstanding.

GFS is better than the CMC, dude

@Ginx snewxAny room next to you? I think it's a good time to just sit and smile for awhile...

Yea, this is why I just made a general post describing the pattern and the inherent potential that comes along with it. But I won't post anything about specific threats until sometime next week at the earliest.

I think some of use would be okay, too.

You aren't much higher than my "conservative" ranges lol

Yea, I like him more for medium range.

And yes, I got that image from DT..before I get accused of copying his outlook.

PS: Your claim that the NAO doesn't matter in during December of a la nina is just as ridiculous as your accusations: The west is cold due to the RNA...its not difficult.

What point did I miss? I was simply speaking of the December NAO....nothing more. I'm not sure what your issue is, but you are one ill human being. I have the west colder because I expect an RNA in December, which looks correct. Not a big leap of faith in a la nina. It has nothing to do with you. You issued your outlook in October, and I developed my sensible analog composite in SEPTEMBER....as the link below illustrates. The only tweak that I made to it in November was to add one 2010 and one more 2020. I solicit information regarding your view on things for the same reason that I do with anyone else on social media....because I value your input. Have I incorporated some of the tools that you use such as ACE, solar and sensible weather analogs? Yes, because I felt as though I was too dependent on ENSO, but I developed the composites myself. ENSO Continues to Stagnate as Winter Clarity Increases | Eastern Mass Weather I have a pretty ferocious first half of winter in the east with the NAO trending negative in December, and you do not....you are wayyyy off base with these outlandish claims. Anyone who reads my stuff is pretty convinced that I thoroughly research everything and spend far too much time to simply copy a forecast, dude. Stop making accusations about my work when you don't even read it...its both ignorant and absurd.

I think scooter may have visited, too....I was pretty out of it....the meds that they had me on actually made me violent, which is totally not in my nature. I was threatening staff, etc....was nuts.

That must be off, its north of Steve and his dogs.

Yea, my premise this fall was to be very skeptical of a good Pacific until we get close to the new year...don't expect a great December in that regard. But it looks like the blocking is kicking into high gear a bit faster than my sensible analogs had suggested, so that is good. Every other tool I used was guns blazing for December with respect to the NAO....just my new sensible weather composite had more of a +NAO-December vibe, which gave me a bit of pause in that regard.

I think I side with the GEFS on that, but we'll see....the Pacific will eventually improve, but I think it will take some time.

I will never forget him coming to visit me in the hospital after that terrible accident I was in 13 years ago.....he is a true weenie, but also a true friend.

It looks like it hits the block and slides out east after being tucked.

Redux 30 years to the day.

DT posted on Euro weekly and new CMC monthly...both orgasmic and in very good agreement