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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    This I can buy, but I am still skeptical of month long -NAO.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wouldn't bail on that yet....we can have big blocks in December and still average a slightly positive NAO in the monthly mean...see last year.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just bring them...teach them our unhealthy way of life.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Even I consider any significant December snowfall as gravy...the larger implication is what it means for the balance of the winter, thereafter.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    You don't need an exotic anomaly like that...in fact, it was so extreme that it was of a detriment to most of NE, as it wrapped milder maratime air in from the NE and also blocked some systems from coming up the coast.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    This map perfectly conveys the snowfall distribution that I had in mind doing my outlook.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm excited....will be firing up the guidance package this coming week.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks to be a GTG you don't want to miss.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    The prospect of 2009 with a more pedestrian DM mean NAO intrigues me a great, great deal.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm with you on December...we will have some shots, which is already a leg up on any recent month of December..but I need to see the whites of a threat's eyes.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pacific is nothing like last year, though.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    We'll see what happens. I have learned not to be eager to pound my chest and spike footballs...a decade or seasonal forecasts is humbling. I am certainly comfortable with my pre season thoughts, at this point.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    We are going to see another el Nino next year IMO....since 1950, all there cases of el Nino following 3 consecutive cold ENSO events doubled up on warm ENSO .
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    The NAO verified last December...the Pacific negated it.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree with you on the daily analysis. ...drives me nuts lol
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    2010 is a great overall analog, but I don't love if for the polar domain due to the very low solar...NAO won't be as extreme, which isn't saying much.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, but I would keep expectations in check for at least the first half of December.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    You may need some this December.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't expect to be that cold due to differences in the Pacific and a slightly more canonical el Nino, but there should be some huggies.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would want to be around and outside of I 495 early.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    May end up with an ONI near the top of my 1.7 to 1.9 range.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Check out the comparison between the early December forcing and January 2003.....lends confidence to my conclusion of an interior focused start to the season.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed. But to be fair, no one expects wall-to-wall cold and snow, so I have no issue with some periods of east-based forcing....makes sense to me....just like 2016 wasn't endless east-based forcing, this one won't be endless Modoki forcing....they are both basin-wide events.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    January 2003 looks like it had the dual forcing that Chris pointed out.
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