40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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The point is that drawing attention to aspects of the pattern that could be construed as unfavorable for snowfall implies objectivity, which is the antithesis of "wish casting".
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GEM ENS:
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Autopilot defensive resistance
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EPS has me within 20" of climo seasonal snowfall on March 1, as talk of futility quickly grows.....well, futile.
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12z:
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Gives me some glaze.
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I don't get the seizures that some folks are having....00z GEFS mean gave just N of me in se NH 10" rest of Feb....06z 11" and 12z 9". Man, its going to be a looooooong week if folks can't stomach that level of variance at extended lead times.
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Agree. Latter February is gradient/latitude driven and it's very possible said gradient remains where it has all season.
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Furthermore, I don't think it even really matters as it relates to any SSW impact...I don't even expect the Pacific to change much. Its the arctic where things shake up.
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I highly doubt that they step back in terms of March...the latter February period is transitional and lower prob.
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I totally buy that what is likely ENSO related background forcing leading this pattern of persistence both with respect to sensible weather results, and model error, however, at some point that standing wave will in fact decay. La nina is eroding both from a SST standpoint and MEI (ocean-atmosphere coupling) and I think it was Scott already posted evidence that the cool ENSO standing wave had relented. Persist at your own peril.
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I'm sure this was lined up in @snowman19's tweet regurgitation queue. ..tip of his tongue.
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Bc you don't need a degree to post on the weather side. And I'm not preventing him from speaking for himself...merely adding my opinion.
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He's a hobbyist and winter sports enthusiast, like alot of us. He's never claimed any met creds.
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I'm not sure the MJO has much to do with it....if anything, aside from being in a phase conducive to propagation of the strat warming (not phase 8). Not sure it even gets to phase 8 TBH. I don't expect much of any PNA ridging.
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I'd be absolutely stunned if we went back well above normal to begin March. But we'll see...I originally thought that way about early January, too. I think there is more evidence to suggest otherwise, this time. We'll see.
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I have had two of those in mind...Dec 2007 and warmer version of Jan/Feb '94 that acts as a segue into more blocky regime.
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Correct!!!!
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Does the 50mb PV realize the PNA is negative? Maybe we can send a screenshot of a Pacific Homvoller diagram from a 38yo virgin in Tennessee?
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You had me at rectal glue...
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Not a matter of "if" this year...mistake.
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You tried to warn him...he porked.
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I honestly still think I could hit the low end of my 60-70" forecast range IMBY. Would need some luck, of course...but possible if things break right. Don't get me wrong, I'm not holding my breath, but...
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93-94 type pattern.
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Lol 1956
