40/70 Benchmark

Yea, if I don't see any more snow this year, then yes...that would change things.

Thank you.

You both are talking as if its June and this year's total is final. I'm not convinced of that.

Keep in mind that I also expect to approach last year's total at my locale. If I end at 19.5", then we'll talk.

I love how it's a "jackpot" fetish because I can't stand getting a foot, while everyone else nearby gets 2'+...its not a jack fetish, it's a pork aversion.

60"? I didn't have that last season...

And I mean this...not sarcastic one bit.

Sometimes that is what it takes to get off of the schnide.

Honestly, yes. You can keep the extra 20" when it comes with standing on the sidelines bent over during an epic blizzard.

Totally possible...

15" AFTER 3/1....I think there is a viable threat(s) beforehand. But fine...out of futility range.

Yea, skepticism is warranted in relation to the weeklies at this juncture, but we can both agree that that is a viable outcome considering the evolution of the polar stratosphere. Will reality be more tempered? Very possible if not likely.

This was kind of my point...that takes the entire region out of ratter territory, most likely.

Good over/under. Same page.

Define appreciable...large gap between "appreciable " and March 2018.

Yes...all valid concerns that I share. This is why I don't foresee any sustained, major negative temp anomalies, but that doesn't mean that it won't term more wintry and see some snow.

Pot, kettle lol

This is a valid argument. We probably have a better shot at a significant NAO block than a sustained PNA ridge.

PV does not look to remain stout.

Happy Birthday, @Ginx snewx!

35.6/35 Fog and still some patches of snow left....

I always throught February was for shit region wide.

Winter to Potentially Return Later in February Major Disruption of Stratosphere to Ensue There is a growing school of thought that winter is essentially over and that this season will end as one of the mildest and least snowy on record across much of the region. And while that still may be the case, there is reason to believe that winter is not destined to end quietly. Indeed, it was it was expressed in the Eastern Mass Weather Winter Outlook this past November that the latter portion of the season was at an elevated risk for a significant disruption to the polar vortex, which could result in one more round of high latitude blocking. And is now all but a certainty that this will indeed occur. Currently the polar vortex remains very stout and centered, which is keeping the supply of cold constricted over the arctic: However, the weakening of the zonal mean wind anomaly over the polar stratosphere after mid month is very evident on the the European guidance. This weakening of the vortex results in a great deal of warming of the polar stratosphere by 2/19 on both the European: And the GFS suite: However, neither ensemble suite currently reflects this polar disruption in the pattern very well, as evidenced by the forecast H5 anomaly for that same time frame being void of high latitude blocking. European: GEFS: The GFS ensemble maintains this disruption of the polar vortex through the end of the month. With still no notable reflection in the overall pattern. This is possible given the fact that the manner in which major disruptions of the polar vortex do, or do not manifest themselves into the pattern can be difficult to predict. And it is possible that the cold is sent into Siberia as it was for much of January. However, there maybe some early signs of a more ominous end of the month beginning to emerge in the form of a descent of both the AO and NAO. Thus the more likely scenario given analog preference is that the ramifications of said disruption will be slow to materialize on guidance and that ultimately it will in fact influence the pattern to assume a more wintery character to at least some degree. Potential Late Season Analog There are signs of this in the longer range European weekly product, which is now signaling strong blocking ultimately materializing during the last week of February, which resembles one of the primary Eastern Mass Weather 2023 seasonal analogs: This is transition on the European weekly product is a progression that is very similar to that which occurred during February 1956, which is both one of the five primary ENSO analogs and a member of the favored RNA style extra pacific composite discussed in the winter outlook. The season has indeed been a viable analog to date, including a month of December which featured a strong bout of NAO style blocking that resulted in very little snowfall for the region. What can be gleaned from this analog is that the RNA pattern is very likely to persist, so the ability of cold to return to the eastern US for any length of time will depend on whether of not the disruption of the polar vortex can trigger another episode of high latitude blocking. Ultimately what may determine whether or not these changes in the polar stratosphere translate to the surface enough to ensure that the end of winter 2023 will be eventful is whether or not la nina has weakened enough to finally allow a coherent MJO wave entry into phases 7 and 8. But in the mean time, history has taught us that it would be unwise to write it off entirely. In the mean time, enjoy the pleasant weather and get outside before a potentially active late February and first half of March.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/02/winter-to-potentially-return-later-in.html

I like a major late season deal to help bridge the gap from winter to fantasy baseball draft.