40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Yea, I never saw the appeal with the Super Bowl crap.
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I'm at the point where anything is gravy....while I still think there is some potential, I am done talking it up and holding my breath. My expectations are virtually non existent.
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Sneaky elevation, too.
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I never touched that. Done blogging about rain and Cirrus...so exhausted by this season.
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And December could have easily produced 30" instead of next to nothing. Point is that there is a reason why we never get under 20" in a season.
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I think it's a little of both...I agree that since nobody cares if said changes didn't result in snow in their BY, that there is an element of resistance to the reality that the pattern did in fact change. However, there has definitely been a trend for guidance to be initally overzealous with the change in the longer range, which exacerbates the first issue due to frustration.
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At this latitude, you get 20-25" by default every season...that was it.
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I have looked at guidance maybe a handful of times all season and not since the snow in January.
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Kind of a 1979-80 vibe, which is my futility record.
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So sorry, Gerry. Hope she heals well.
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Yea, all set with an inch or three of slush.
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10/50 are worth my time. Not bad...
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Pounding sleet
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It adds insult to injury IMO. I'd rather just torch the whole east coast.
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It wasn't that it was "a whisker weak enough". It was a totally different type of el nino from the ones that torch. It was the polar opposite of 97-98..not remotely close and total opposite from it on the modoki spectrum. A better way to phrase it is that if it were slightly stronger, than it probably would have been more east based and canonical on the modoki spectrum.
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Right, but the problem in December 2022 was that the PV lobe was pinned underneath the block too far to the west, which also pulled the blizzard back to the west.
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The focus in winter seasonal forecasting is on the pattern....H5 plots, etc. This is why I try to add in text narrative explicitly outlining how I expect the season to evolve, which includes snowfall, etc...that is the result.
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Right. I'm sure there are plenty of years which featured a pronounced dearth of snow not comensurste with the degree of opportunity. This was my point about distinguishing between a rat pattern and rat results. Some were rat on both respects...this year on results. But I'm sorry, an extreme NAO block like that near the winter solstice is not a rat pattern. Find that in 2011 or 2001...or 2006.
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It wasn't a ratter pattern even there. Look at December...that was awful luck.
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Problem is that some fail to differentiate the pattern from the result....there is a spectrum of sorts. This year is merely a subpar pattern with a ratter result.
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BS Most of the snow lovers on this board will take 2 feet anytime. Is December preferable to March? Sure.
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I still have a few inches in the background, but coverage is fading.
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It's a good example of why I keep telling that snowman dude to stop cramming tweets of PV charts down people's throats....you don't need a complete evisceration of the arctic to see snow in New England.
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Some locales are going to be primed for a run at futility.
