40/70 Benchmark

I know some may interpret this as me trying to play it both ways, but it's not because I grade what I posted in November, regardless. I'm just trying honestly convey a level of uncertainty. I expect that pattern moving forward to produce some snow, but I also need to acknowledge that the pattern all season has struggled to produce snowfall comensurste with potential.

Right...as in would I be suprised if the rest of the season produced very little? Would I be pissed? The answer to each is "no". But I was trying to convey what I think may happen.

Yea, well like I just illustrated...I just did.

Yea, I get it...which is why I was trying to elaborate to add perspective.

For the season? Yes.

It's really not a huge stretch to have 25" combined for February and March. I mean...I was like +9 for January and had 17.5". Figure less precip, but also less extreme positive temp departures.

I think I see at least another 25-35" this year.

I haven't viewed the weeklies, but I do not expect a very mild pattern during at least the first half of March.

I hear that.

Man, for someone who has queefed historic snowfalls over the past several years of regional despair, you sure are one miserable SOB.

Yea, keep the plows on, Phil.

If someone put a gun to my head right snow, I would say that the cold will not be overly impressive late this month into March, aside from perhaps another glancing blow....and that March will be the snowiest month overall for SNE (low bar), but not like March 2018.

What I had actually called for back in November was for a late season PV disruption that would fall short of official SSW criteria (wind reversal), but would still provide a fairly wintry ending.

I can easily see how this goes either way, which is of zero help, forecast wise. But what I do know is that it is happening and is unlikely to allow futility for anyone...at least in New England, anyway.

That is part of why January was such an epic disaster, despite the fact that it was uber active and SNE snowfall is generally more highly correlated to precip, than temps. Normally, that would have still been a decent to very good month for snowfall, but all of the cold got locked into Siberia and the PNA was constantly west based, which funneled any morsel of cold that managed to sneak onto this side of the globe into the west.

I will say...this is happening. Guidance is locked and loaded on that....how exactly it manifests will dictate whether we ultimately give a flying flake and that is TBD. Should at least be some modicum of validation with respect to the late season portion of my outlook, though. Kind of like how I got the very active January right. That is what is frustrating about seasonal outlooks....you can get important details right, but the sensible result can still turn the forecast to doo doo because either you missed something else, or it didn't quite have the impact you expected. What a mine field.

Yea, agreed.

One thing I am not in love with it that the disruption with the PV seems to send it mostly onto the other side of the globe again.

I think sometimes the emoji reactions are more geared towards the image, rather than the poster.

Cooler version, too. I'll take the under on +8.

May 2009 was brutal....very cool summer.

Guidance is slow to reflect that at H5...not surprising.

Makes sense.

Thanks, bud...he is why I am up right now haha. Wife not up to the night shift baby duty yet.