40/70 Benchmark

I wonder how much of a difference it would have made in the Jan monthly temp departures if that historic cold shot had a couple of days earlier. Maybe down from like +8 to +6? That monthly departures are what killed me....I expected a huge thaw in January, but not for it to last all Month. Lol La nina shifting more west may have played a role, too.

This isn't surprising at all...I mean, I had Feb 2018 as a monthly analog.

If the arctic doesn't deliver for whatever reason, then winter is over. Plain and simple....barring a bowling ball miracle.

I was....but if you head rea-rea-rea-read my post, you would have seen how tenuous I felt late Feb was. I implied most of the snow would be in NNE until the arctic changes in March.

Yea, CC def plays a role in that. Agreed.

Yea, PAC is modoki la nina full speed ahead.

57.6....hi of 57.9, so far.

I think some of this is due to the eruption last year....its exacerbated the issue.

If somehow the changes in the arctic fail to deliver, then its over... I don't expect much help from the Pacific side...la nina has ended up more west-based than I expected, which probaby explains to some degree that lack of poleward Aleutian ridging this season.

19.5".

Yea, could go either way. Should be a mess

CMC was very cold, so makes sense.

Increasingly Stormy and Somewhat Colder Pattern Implies Stronger Finish to Mild Winter of 2022-2023 Polar Vortex Initially Extends South to Begin Major Disruption Last week, Eastern Mass Weather used teleconnector convergence to focus on the period between February 20-23 for the next significant winter storm threat, which coincides with the extension of the polar vortex to the southeast during the initial stages of a major disruption. Confidence has continued to increase this week, as there is a very good consensus that the polar vortex will begin to encroach on the northern edge of the southeast ridge, thus suppressing the storm track somewhat and introducing colder air into the equation on the northern flank. EPS Mean next Thursday 2/24 evening: GEFS Mean next Thursday 2/24 evening: EPS Mean Sunday 2/26: GEFS Mean Sunday 2/26: While some wintry precipitation is likely across the region, precipitation type issue are likely to be very prevalent, as the mid level area of low pressure is likely to ride the boundary between the colder air to the north, over northern New England, and the milder air to the south. This means that the boundary may initially set up in the general vicinity of the Mass pike for the first event next week, before potentially allowing the milder air to fight back slightly further to the north for the follow up event during the final weekend of February in the event that the first wave is not potent enough to compress the flow further to the south. Thereafter, as we look towards the month of March, there is growing evidence to suggest that major blow that the polar vortex takes at the stratospheric level during the month of February will translate down to the surface. Development of High Latitude Blocking Likely to Conclude February There is growing evidence to suggest that the active ending to the 2022-2023 winter season that was suggested by Eastern Mass Weather last fall is indeed going to come to fruition. Note the GEFS forecast using ECMWF data provided by @WorldClimateSvc, which illustrates the propagation of the significant warming and subsequent disruption of polar vortex down fro the stratosphere to the troposphere. This forecast is supported by the research of @zd1awarence, @splillo and @SimonLeeWx, courtesy of DrAHButler, which implies that SSW events most successfully propagate downward and result in periods of negative NAO when the MJO wave is active and/or in phases 5-7. The MJO is currently moderately active in phase 6 and transitioning to phase 7. If correct, while it does not guarantee major snowfall, as seen during the month of December, it would entail a redevelopment of the NAO blocking that took place early in the season. The main question, aside from the synoptic nuances that dictate snowfall, would be how long it lasts. The European guidance implies that the vortex would remain dysregulated throughout the month of March. While the GFS ensemble implies a recovery during the second half of the month, which is when climo becomes rather hostile for snowfall throughout the forecast area, regardless. Here is the warming that is currently getting underway in earnest: Note that the initial effect of the disruption is for the vortex to relocate further southeast, which results in the wintry threats next week. Thereafter, during the final days of February, the vortex begins to weaken much more as the warming propagate lower: EPS: GEFS: EPS: GEFS: And as March begins, the vortex is largely decimated with a large and well coupled warm bubble remaining over the arctic at all levels of the atmosphere. 10mb (stratosphere): 50mb (Troposphere): Resultant Greenland blocking at 500mb: One potential general analog to this sequence of events is February into March 1956, which was both one of the Eastern Mass Weather primary ENSO analogs and one of the favored extra tropical Pacific RNA dominant analogs. First half of February 1956: First half of February 2023: Latter February 1956: 12/1/2022 - 2/13/2023: 12/1/1955 - 2/13/1956: Stay tuned for more on this potential evolution as we near the month of March. And updates on next week's storm threat(s) over the coming days.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/02/increasingly-stormy-and-somewhat-colder.html No changes.

Fine, but I posted all three ensembles and the GEFS were the most pessimistic in terms of snowfall.

At least half...

He pointed out that it would be wise to assume more RNA than modeled....which is not conducive for snowfall. What are you confused about?

The point is that some are freaking out about the threats going to crap, so I'm not sure what else to reference when responding to these assertions about the guidance other than...well.....the guidance.

Current guidance has me with another 10-20" for the balance of Feb, which is gravy pre blocking....I'll take 30-40" seasonal total with an ominous March hanging in the balance and run.

The point is that drawing attention to aspects of the pattern that could be construed as unfavorable for snowfall implies objectivity, which is the antithesis of "wish casting".

GEM ENS:

Autopilot defensive resistance

EPS has me within 20" of climo seasonal snowfall on March 1, as talk of futility quickly grows.....well, futile.

12z: