40/70 Benchmark

06z GFS def colder....plenty of time to turn back the other way, though.

Messy Thursday on Tap: First Call Some Snowfall Accumulation Likely North; Ice Threat South Synoptic Situation: It was explained on Eastern Mass Weather last week how the final week of February would be turning more wintry due to the southward pressing of the polar vortex, which begins to encroach on the territory of the south east ridge. This battle is very apparent as a lobe of energy breaks off from the massive and seemingly semi permanent western US trough towards mid week. The lobe of energy attenuates as it is forced through the compressed flow between the PV to the north, and the SE ridge to the south on Wednesday into Thursday, as it approaches the area. The PV continues to edge to the southeast and encroach on the area as the storm system moves though the area, thus at some point during the storm, arctic air will be drawn back to the south. This will complicate the forecast. Anticipated Synoptic Evolution: Very little if any snowfall will occur across the southwestern half of Connecticut, as precipitation will begin later Wednesday evening as a mixture of sleet and rain. This is due to the track of the mid level system drawing in warmer air aloft. Any snowfall in the Mass pike region rapidly transitions to sleet by shortly after midnight with only very light accumulations of snowfall, beforehand, as warmer air aloft continues to overspread the area on a southwest flow. The Thursday AM commute will be hazardous to the north and west of Boston, as sleet continues to fall to the north with perhaps a mixture of sleet and freezing rain to the west. The immediate Boston area and points southeast should be raining during the commute. However, all areas should be messy and plenty of extra time will likely be needed. Conditions should improve throughout the immediate Boston area during Thursday AM, however, arctic air will begin to filter back towards the area from the northeast around midday. This could cause roadways to ice over again during early to mid afternoon, from northeast to southwest. This will especially be a hazard to the north of the Mass pike, will residual precipitation will remain into mid afternoon. Allow plenty of extra time for the evening commute, as well, as area roadways are still likely to ice over despite the last of the precipitation moving out to the north. FIRST CALL: Final Call will be issued on Tuesday-

First Call for Thursday. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/02/messy-thursday-on-tap-first-call.html

EURO and GEM trended snowier for Thursday..I'm tossing that for now. I'd go with the American guidance, which is warmer in the mid levels. I can buy the cold winning the the lower levels, but mid levels is a tougher sell.

It will probably end up like White Juan and do body shots with the Canucks up in the Maritimes, but it beats the hell out of tracking Chinese balloons and acid fog.

Yea....just getting a head of the usual crap, folks that want to rip my head off for discussing it should do so in the melt down thread, or whatever the hell that abortion is.

That is a White Juan that is actively trending.

I realize that I am likely to be cyber-caned by the usual suspects for pointing this out, but I'm sorry..its a weather forum, so here goes. The EURO made a big nod towards March roaring in like the most exotic lion that we've seen.

Just view it as 26-28 window of interest....it will congeal into one threat.

Be careful about expecting inches of IP anywhere...seldom works out like that.

I have always felt that that block from December would repeat and when it does, its exceedingly unlikely to result in as little snowfall for this region as it did then.

Agree, John...that is my interpretation. That is why I qualified my Miller B implication with the need to shave the ridge a bit. Conveyor of attenuating waves as is.

That is an absolutely orgasmic look if it works out like that....overunnig conveyor belt as is, and if you bear that ae ridge down just a whisker, it becomes a Miller B factory.

Naked twister. Love that look.

Overall, yea...I am still hanging near futility threshold if no more falls.

Well, I had near normal snow, but near the pike and points southward, yes.

I think la nina shifting more west may have played a role..it was east based all fall, then there was an abrupt shift in December...may have helped set up the January blood bath. I didn't expect that.

I just mean they went as expected. I figured we would have scored some snowfall in December, but the pattern showed up.

January was poor tempwise. I'm happy with December and February.

GEFS seem less enthused.

33.4

I could be wrong, too....but the inverse of the boy who cried wolf is persistence forecasting going astray. The best option is to just make an informed call and I feel as though I have done that.

Just like your famous "nickles and dimes" proclamation in mid January 2015....