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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    37.6 Ticking down steadily now...
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like GFS with the Tolland tumble
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    They have been dreadful...waffling like the forsaken love child of the NAM and UK.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    .25" RF as of midnight... 38.3..down from 39 earlier tonight.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    NW winds are also good at eliminating moisture.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Main pause I have is set slot issues after the turn to snow...mid level banding will be west, so we need the forehose.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    This has Dec 1992 written all over it...over a foot here and crystalized armageddon over the higher terrain.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am just going om experience here and local climo....as long as this doesn't back in overhead, which I call BS on...I will get at least a foot. Interior ne MA is the best lower elevation spot to be more often than not in these late season elevation deals. No downslope and mitigated marine influence this time of year...if mid levels hold, it will snow.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the stall/capture/loop stuff always take a bit longer (east) to materialize than modeled...that is all I was banking on when everything was backing up today. This event reminds me of Dec 1992...just from a sensible standpoint.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    It consolidated the low more slowly and leaves the nipple longer.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    It went east?
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks god it was more consolidated!
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    LOL GFS is worse than I thought here.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Run that for KLWM?
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nervous...could go either way. Trusted my gut...famous last words, this season.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Usually these phased lows end up a bit more progressive than modeled, so I will bank on that...consolidated without retrograde would be ideal. I agree on that.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Like Scott said earlier, hopefully a major event like this with marginal thermals will prompt action to address that.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree with you...just saying that a more consolidated low has a better shot of pulling that off. It would be far more detrimental here than it would be in Ayer.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    The Euro cut back here from 06z bc it trended in that same direction as the GFS..just not as drastic. Do I think it ends up backing in as much as the GFS? No...but if it does, then I'm done. More consolidated low increases that risk.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the small area is MBY. Like it usually is.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, normally I get away with a great deal if late season marine influence.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I just don't agree...you can see that the GFS consolidates faster, and backs in further...when it was more of the inverted trough look, it didn't back in like that. These recent runs are unequivocally worse here than the ones early this AM. Apparently BOX agrees.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yay...the low tracks overhead, my blizzard is saved I need to hope the retro shit is overdone, which it often is...but that is the trend today.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thar initial "nipple low" to the west was saving my ass..sure, it causes some southerly flow, but that is more damaging lower in latitude and to the west...point is, the more consolidated low backing in more is more detrimental to this area than the H925 s flow from the nipple low.
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