40/70 Benchmark

Which makes sense...most of its skill is within that <day 4 wheelhouse...but this system is not yet there....tomorrow. Big 24 hours.

GFS suite did a much better job with the Tuesday system in the medium range...it had a much better handle on the slightly weaker blocking being displaced to the east along with the 50/50.

Yea, virtual non event here.

Well, it will likely phase at some point, but at what point...even EURO eventually phases it in Maritimes..but not before having it shredded.

If that s stream doesn't phase with the PV lobe, then confluence will stop it at some point if it's close enough....then of course, if it does phase, then we want the timing to be right or else you get a GFS solution. Lots to work out, but there is less risk in CT IMO.

What I am saying is evident in the EPS that is posted.

Well, to be fair, it's easier to feel good about things in CT because you have lesser shot of being porked....you are guaranteed to do well Tuesday, then have less shot of being screwed Friday. I am done for on Tuesday and there is a chance that PV lobe by Maine screws me Friday.

Looks as though there are several 00z EPS members that have that middle ground phasing that annihilates sne.

That PV lobe N of ME is going to be a big problem for someone if EURO is more right....gonna be a sharp cut off with this one like Jan 2016 and Jan 96 (not saying its of that caliber, just prominent examples that people will remember). The N edge of the heavy snow band will be nuclear assuming this doesn't get shredded. The GFS starts phasing the lobe in over PA and NYS, but the EURO has it out ahead more to the NE so that it shunts the system and doesn't phase until the maritimes. Gonna be an interesting model war....a compromise between the two could be very nice if that PV decided to give that southern wave road head near the cape.

The 00z OP EURO is a blue print for one good nuclear melt before ride off into the sunset for the season.

EURO is LBSW graze.

Yea, you guys are good to go.

Wow, Euro is like 1-3" east lol I don't know how anyone could be blamed for packing it in if 3/4 fails. Looks good in CT.

I mean the season...and the event to close this month and open March is another fail.

I thinks it's been evident that I understand the potential of this March as much as anyone, but I'm just tiring of going through the motions with little to no reward.

Pay close attention and look beyond the weenies smearing themselves in KY Jelly during any south trends, as said trends may also come with a slow and inexorable march towards pedestrian. That is it for the season for me if this one starts that shit....will cancel subscriptions promptly.

This 3/4 event starts pulling this shit and I'm on to baseball.

Looks like a slight shave in QPF, too...watch the shredder threat.

Totally. Lol

I don't even care at this point....I lost interest yesterday.

This should have plenty of mositure given its origin...just need to be careful not to shred it.

Speed of movement is the most overrated element of a snowfall forecast. Get the moisture plus the well placed lift/dynamics and the rest will take care of itself given a favorable track. Missing out the additional 3-6" over 24 hours from shredded returns won't kill me.

I like the Berkshires and to a lesser extent ORH hills/NW CT hills with the easterly flow.

Pretty close to my map...same page.

I want the 969 a hair se of ACK.