40/70 Benchmark

Eh, whatever...get a rat out of the way if it comes to that. Next year will not suck.

Yet, here you are....lol

Minor SSW events can be just as effective, but are just unlikely to last as long.

You know it's been rough when Ginxy starts kicking the dogs

Yikes. Hell of a gradient between here and Manchester.

Even in November, I explicitly wrote that a major SSW is not expected.

Agree.

I was never on board for a major SSW, but my point was that minor may be sufficient.

I like the BOX map.

17.6...nice, fake cold with fresh snowpack augmenting radiation-

Nice radiation....damn, 19.0 Great time to weenie out after wife and kids have passed out.

Final Call for Sunday Night-Monday Potentially Similar Outcome to Friday Synoptic Situation: A consequence of the active Pacific jet frequently supplying energy onto the west coast is that it teleconnects to higher heights over the southeast. Thus while we have a very active storm track due to a Pacific assembly line of systems, there will be a tendency for them to de-amplify as they approach the east coast. The system approaching on Monday is no different. Indeed, the consistent feed of energy spilling over the AK EPO ridge and onto the west coast pumps up heights over the southeastern US and attenuates the storm due to the compressed nature of the flow between the southeast ridge and the confluent flow over SE Canada. European forecast from Friday for Monday evening: While the lack of high latitude blocking and southeast ridge provide a pathway for a strong and phased system to track inland, the compressed nature of the flow in conjunction with the confluence to the north work to force the system to initially attenuate and ultimately redevelop along the coast. The primary difference from the First Call issued on Friday is that said redevelopment now appears to take place slightly faster and further to the south. European forecast from Saturday evening for Monday evening: This may cause a period or protracted snowfall along the coast during the say on Monday not at all dissimilar from this past Friday, during which light accumulations occurred. Expected storm evolution for Sunday Night & Monday: Precipitation should begin to break out late Monday evening over western New England, s potentially snow and sleet over the Berkshires and NW Connecticut hills with rain elsewhere. Then by the predawn hours, snow and sleet become relegated to the Berkshires and Worcester hills, as a rather mild antecedent airmass in conjunction with a southwest flow aloft due to the decaying primary cause the mid levels of the atmosphere to warm even further. Ordinarily in mid January, mid level low pressure tracking just south of Boston would still mean significant snows for the vast majority of the area. But in this instance, the low is tracking close enough given the mild antecedent airmass as to induce enough warm air advection to ensure primarily rainfall across southern and southeastern third of New England. However, as the low begins to pass by Nantucket island, winds should begin to veer more out of the north as the coastal redevelopment intensifies. This will cause slightly colder air to be entrained into the system and a transition of any residual mixed precipitation to snowfall will occur over first over the Worcester hills just after the Monday AM commute. And then into the Boston area by midday on Monday. It is during Monday afternoon that storm accumulations will take place the southern and eastern portion of the forecast area in a burst of snowfall. Before tapering off Monday evening and ending by midnight. Final Call:

Final Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/01/final-call-for-sunday-night-monday.html

00z left, 12z right

Meanwhile....back at the ranch....19.9

EURO looks exactly like 12z after 18z had ticked warmer.

Man, diurnal jackpot...after having clouds hang around all day to cap it at 30.7, it's now cleared and radiating down to 22.8. Hopefully it coulds up again just after dawn.

24.6

Blizz of 78 didn't go over the cape

Well, me over to ORH is still interior SNE.

That is about what the new accumulated snow depth product is....much more reasonable. NARCAN, too. 10:1 maps no bueno in these marginal deals.

Wrong. My ideal track is between the BM and ACK....ORH hills out to Berkshires over the cape.

Funny of my area into se NH is catching the bullseye in this run....same region that has taken it on the chin over the past several years. 'Bout time-

I could have written a book (actually, I did) on why I'd be burpn', fartn' and trackn' all January, but 'alas....all I have really tracked is @qg_omega's daily post count.

Its not a SWFE because the confluence does spur redevelopment, but the primary still hangs on a bit longer than we would like with such a marginal airmass.