40/70 Benchmark

Ah yes......genius. Don't ever issue a forecast, and you can claim to have "nailed it", while telling everyone who did why they missed it. Lol In all seriousness, I agree with a lot of what you are saying and I don't expect anyone to spend the time that I do...truthfully it isn't necessary, but it helps me to learn. All I am saying is that if you are going to be critical of others, at least go on record with something yourself. I will also say, these variable are know when looking in hindsight, which is the value of analogs.

I haven't seen anyone forecast a cold month of December. I think the high end of my range was +3F. It's very rough to forecast extreme anomalies at a seasonal level...this is why it's considered a huge signal when you see a 985mb low on a day 10 ensemble mean. I also find it hard to credit anyone that doesn't put forth a published effort....sorry, bumping a quote about a warm pool from October or November doesn't do a hell of a lot for me. Put the time and effort in and I'll give credit where its due. Short of that anyone trying to claim credit for anything is akin to a lucky guess on a math test without any work shown.

Good analog...one of my favs from the composite.

I agree!

Chef's kiss of a statement. Largest issue plaguing this forum is the the dearth of capacity for nuanced thinking.....George is the perfect example, from one end of the spectrum to the other.

2/10 on the suprise meter.

Not happening.

You wonder if at some point GW slows, too....perhaps some modifications being made in conjunction with natural variability. Just a thought before anyone jumps down my throat...I am not denying or disputing anything.

They are....east coast has seen increased snowfall, but a decrease in snow cover days...larger storms, but less storms.

Aside from forecast verification purposes, it really doesn't matter how heavily the early season warmth skews the seasonal mean positive.....as long as its seasonal and active for January-February.

Yep...this is a point I have mentioned to @snowman19...we spend several months fighting tooth and nail over what ultimately amounts to 10" of snowfall and 1/10 of a degree Celsius in a strip of water in the tropical Pacific.

This is what I am banking on in conjunction with the disturbed PV in order to avoid a yet another terd up here....more N stream response than is typical of an el Nino this strong.

Same with la Nina...some of the Modoki la Nina events begin colder than east-based. 1976 was very weak, which leads to more variability because the season is more dictated by extra tropical forces.

ABSOLUTELY. This is what I spent in inordinately large amount of time trying to communicate.

LOL Its a pretty reasonable take IMO.

Well, I am hardly above climo...

I am already out on March, anyway...I expect an early spring....we could sneak in something the first week, but other than that....

I could see that and its a risk....this is why I made a post last night to the effect of we will need to catch a break in January to end up with above average snowfall regionally.

Yup....like @bluewaveputs it..."competing forces". But I will say the STJ is pretty iron clad el Nino.

Interesting take...this is probably why some of the -PDO years sucked in this area. We'll just have to hope that changes.

The forcing from el Nino is so far west that it actually bolstered the warm December idea.

Now more like "got to get that off the driveway or it will met before I can make weenie snowbank piles"

Yea, its was a slightly toned down version of 1/7/1996 in that raked right up the coast....I got like 16" to the NW of Boston.