40/70 Benchmark

I liked DT's presentation....one thing I have noticed about him is that he inconspicuously never ends up issuing that "final update", so that he isn't really on record with an actual forecast.

Yes. I agree with this....which also factors into my early November release window, following the SAI calculation.

I used 2018...its not a horrible analog largely due to the PAC. I feel like there are worse matches than 2009...not perfect, but it makes my cut...especially after factoring in CC.

I really respect that last paragraph....something few people realize is that the exploration of how the atmosphere can evolve differently from what one expects is probably as important, if not more so than the forecaster's anticipated evolution. I don't agree with all of it, but really appreciate the effort. Lots of Monday morning QBs in seasonal forecasting that never put a publication where their mouth is.

I don't think it would matter much...just nitpicking.

Others can feel free to chime in, but I feel like the bitching over outlook release dates is a loser's lament for 2 primary reasons... 1) Not sure there is much skill to be gained in issuing a 60-90 day forecast over a 90-120, regardless of the forecaster's elevation. 2) I feel like its incumbent on the forecaster to publish whenever they feel as though they have enough data to do so, which for me is after Halloween, when the SAI data is in...not a huge deal, but its one indicator I like to mention in the interest of being exhaustive. Bitching about others releasing later is akin to crying to the teacher that you weren't the last to hand your test in, after the fact. You are done when you say you're done. Obviously if you are a pro and have a deadline, that is different...but I still don't get the whining.

Pretty much Andrew right into a major city...yikes.

1992-1993 isn't an el Nino....well, I don't expect a frigid winter. But 1.2 is the ceiling for a jump..I playing it safely since I was going off of my exchange with snowman.

My guess is a SO MEI of 1.1

Obviously, no one expects the MEI to remain weak.....clearly it will jump sooner than later.

Just think if come February its been very mild and yet I have continued to periodically list on many occasions several reasons why its about to get cold..you would have a field day. This is the equivalent to that.

Its not hitting 2.0 ONI.

I wouldn't expect a top 10 snowfall season...just in that sense maybe.

I feel like the forcing it being pulled west due to the warmth in the west PAC..this is also keeping el Nino in check.

Well, its not just about location of the forcing, but also the strength.....I know the 2009 el Nino was appreciably weaker at the point and given that modoki forcing is warm in the fall, that may have had something to do with it. I would need to delve into it more as far as location/distribution of anomalies, but I wouldn't expect it to be as cold in an absolute sense even given identical circumstances due to CC. Looking up the MJO data may be helpful. Would be interesting to dig into this if anyone has time...I have work and the outlook right now.

No doubt that there is some truth to what you are saying, as you always make great points. I am sure where is some impact due to the extra moisture, but I am also confident that the west PAC warmth is dragging the forcing west to a degree. That said, no one expects a cold winter with wall-to-wall modoki forcing.

Mind meld...heh...funny you say this and you will see why when my outlook comes out. Same page.

March did get there, but most areas still get porked by some nuances with respect to the evolution of that big surface low.

Looks to be basinwide.

I suspect we will see some nice stretches of 8 and 1, especially later in the season, but there will probably be some la nina like thaws.

This reflects the current value: Not a forecast. There are plenty of values above 1 in the forecast table, including the mean of .4. If you look at the data table, they are referencing the multi-model mean...I am using the JAMSTEC ensemble mean, which I normally do for EMI. They have JMA at .60 there, but that is as of 10/1....it ran again on 10/20 and was .72. https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html

Last Update from me before I publish next month. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/10/final-enso-update-of-fall.html

No EMI forecast..current value is about neutral. That is the forecast peak in February.