40/70 Benchmark

.23 peak RONI. That season could have worked if it hadn't been in the midst of a monster cool ENSO stretch....which may work to our advantage this year.

Perfect example of why I have begun taking the RONI and MEI more seriously....I would not have whiffed as badly as I did that year because I treated it as a classic weak el Nino. It was warm-neutral per RONI and MEI.

Not for the NE.....but regardless, its a good analog.

What is your point? My comment was in reference to this statement: "Urals ridging in NW Asia combined with Aleutian Low is a base configuration for strat vortex weakening" I comment on what I see and he mentioned that the CFS was "trending", so it can be inferred that it was probably less favorable previously.

I picked 12/2, but it doesn't really matter to me....

Its that time of year again to meet up at Funky's in Worcester, as its a fairly equidistant locale. Choose a date-

That's a configuration for a great deal of blog-pimping by Judah.

Orientation is more important the stronger el Nino is...seasons that feature weaker and basin-wide events are predominantly dictated by extra tropical influences. Def. NOT black and white...that thought process is too "reductive", as @brooklynwx99would say. Its the seasons like 2009-2010 and 1997-1998 that can independently bias the seasonal pendulum to one extreme, so to speak. Think of ENSO as an orientation-intensity continuum.....the stronger and more biased to one extreme in orientation, the more influence the tropics have on the extra tropical hemisphere. Weaker and less biased in orientation have reduced proxy as it relates to the extra tropical hemisphere.

Watch December.....I'm not sure there has been an el Nino with a wintery month of December that went on to suck. I mean, one could argue 2009 for my area, but I will gladly take my chances with a similar evolution.

I have been saying this since literally July.

What he doesn't seem to grasp is that basin wide events are often decided by extra tropical forces, so it doesn't need to necessarily be a Modoki by the strict definition to essentially act like one....same goes for an east-based event. 1986, 1957 and 1965 weren't modoki, but snow lovers on the east coast didn't give a rat's ass.

2.44" on the month.

I can't find any of the seasonal vp forecasts online...anyone have that?

Not huge on the SOI, but what is the paddock site, or whatever it is? Link that, please. Up to my tits in data right now trying to synthesize everything. Thanks.

30.2

Looks good to me.

Still a few weeks off from me paying any mind.

I found the same back in August. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html?m=1

It's not even worth entertaining the super el Nino nonsense at this point.

The Walker cell is the smoking gun for why the W Pac remains so warm and el Nino dysfunctional. That is what I have been focusing on.

This is why I feel like the N stream may stay more involved than it normally would in an appreciable el Nino.

There was an appendage low that developed briefly in CT that delayed the transfer to the coast, which is what cost my area several inches.

Guy loves to spew venom. I feel like I'd be in the running a few years ago, but age, along with a few kids and slices of humble pie have tempered me.

No doubt in that sample....whether or not the trend continues is a debate for another forum. What I do know is that finishing as poorly as we did in snowfall last season was partially attributable to bad luck, at least in SNE, but CC is undoubtedly taking place.

It ties into @Stormchaserchuck1's subsurface theory, which I think has about a .30 average error. Its -.05 this season.