40/70 Benchmark

I agree for the most part, but I think we will get above average for a stretch centered on the time of the SSW/split....kind of like January with the cold start-moderation-colder finish, but the PNA will be reversed...ie January had the first week RNA carry over from December before PNA took over. Here we have the initial carry over +PNA from January until RNA rules the majority of the month. Feb def. won't be as cold as January relative to climo....the N Pacific will also probably break more hostile for at least an interval mid month, along with NAO.

This is what I had for February in my Outlook last fall....I think there is still some colder risk to this forecast, but probably not as much as looked last week. Def. looks like I could be wrong on the +NAO, but I could still see a flip + later this month, despite what guidance does....usually there is a relaxation of the pattern when a PV split actually takes place before any impacts are experiences down the line. February 2026 Outlook February Analogs: 2025, 2022, 2018, 2014,2008, 2002, 2001, 1971 The Alaskan ridge will rule this month at least to start, along with -PNA and +NAO. Some -NAO blocking could develop late if stratospheric warming gets underway early enough, but it likely holds off. Alaskan Ridge Regime Courtesy Lee et al (2019) The polar vortex should begin the month fairly strong, but will be weakening rapidly, as a SSW is likely by mid-month. The January-February 2001 transition from reflection event to SSW may be a reasonable expectation, in terms of progression, as RNA pattern resumes and refocuses the cold west prior to any SSW. The interior will continue to be favored for snowfall as the storm track remains either inland or hugs the coast. While not prohibitively warm, this will largely canonical La Niña month with average to below average snowfall on the coastal plane, and average to above average snowfall across the interior. Should the SSW develop in the earlier portion of the 1/17 to 2/17 window, the the second half of the month may change that due to the development of high latitude blocking, however, it is more likely not to occur until mid-month, as previously alluded to. The month will finish between +1F and +3F over New England and +2F to +4F over the mid Atlantic.

Def. looks like I could be wrong on the +NAO, but I could still see a flip + later this month, despite what guidance does....usually there is a relaxation of the pattern when a PV split actually takes place before any impacts are experiences down the line.

This is what I had for February in my Outlook last fall....I think there is still some colder risk to this forecast, but probably not as much as looked last week. February 2026 Outlook February Analogs: 2025, 2022, 2018, 2014,2008, 2002, 2001, 1971 The Alaskan ridge will rule this month at least to start, along with -PNA and +NAO. Some -NAO blocking could develop late if stratospheric warming gets underway early enough, but it likely holds off. Alaskan Ridge Regime Courtesy Lee et al (2019) The polar vortex should begin the month fairly strong, but will be weakening rapidly, as a SSW is likely by mid-month. The January-February 2001 transition from reflection event to SSW may be a reasonable expectation, in terms of progression, as RNA pattern resumes and refocuses the cold west prior to any SSW. The interior will continue to be favored for snowfall as the storm track remains either inland or hugs the coast. While not prohibitively warm, this will largely canonical La Niña month with average to below average snowfall on the coastal plane, and average to above average snowfall across the interior. Should the SSW develop in the earlier portion of the 1/17 to 2/17 window, the the second half of the month may change that due to the development of high latitude blocking, however, it is more likely not to occur until mid-month, as previously alluded to. The month will finish between +1F and +3F over New England and +2F to +4F over the mid Atlantic.

Not sure where you are from, but late December and early January didn't warm up in the east, it was mid January. As far as the PNA, yes...I don't think I recall literally anyone going with a +PNA for the month of February.

You do realize there is an imminent SSW at just about the same, exact time as 2018, right? You favor a warm start to March based on generic ENSO climo, then list three seasons that deviated from said expectation, which are quality overall analogs (2018, 2014) and a pretty good TNH analog (2015).

It's about normal here, and soon to be below.

Gotcha.

Yea, March 20 about when the lower terrain loses climo around here.

No way IMO.

I've been very impressed with the cold...snow has been about as I had thought, just less in December and maybe a bit more in January.

39.5"

I actually do appreciate it...walked to the bus stop to get my daughter after I had my colonoscopy cherry popped today...fixated on everything from the size of the piles to the resiliency of the snow on the side roads and roofs after more than a week removed from snowfall with any purpose. You guys only interact with me on here, which is when I have the IV in...if nothing is injecting into my veins at that time, I get moody.

No contest.

Nope...just like I told you on the January PNA.

See, this is what I mean...guidance is constantly biased too great in both amplitude and residence time in phase 8 the past decade, but it's been the opposite in the MC phases. Take the under on phase 8 and win every time. Last year and especially this year, we have seen the north Pacific flip to allow for more cold, but we are still falling short on east coast amplification...undoubtedly tied to the aforementioned trend IMHO. I'm sure the faster flow is also a factor, but this is why other areas can still overcome it.

Interesting is a subjective term, I guess.

Cold definitely hasn't been meh...but seasonal snowfall has for a lot of us, and the expanse of meh in that respect is growing by the day.

I told that moron on his own site that the next SSW was coming in February back in early December, when be was trying to claim one was coming near Christmas.

Speaking for myself, I'm obviously not debating CC, or the that the increase in the speed of the flow is real...my contention is that CC is having a negative influence on major east coast cyclogenesis via altered tropical forcing (increase in MC phases, and decrease in central Pacific phases) as a result of the disproportionately rapid warming of the west Pacific. I'm sure the fast flow doesn't help, but I don't think it's the primary inhibitor due to the success that other areas of the globe have with amplification...ie midwest and western Atlantic (Maritimes). It's probably a combination, but it definitely seems to me to be more an issue of simply faster flow, and somewhat of a forcing issue.

My point is there is nothing on the imminent horizon worth salvaging.

If you aren't in patterns conducive to east coast amplification, you either get cutters, or suppressed systems in really cold patterns that can't turn up the coast...sound familiar to the past several seasons?

Hope and Pray for -NAO....why? Please, let's hold onto the bitter wind chills and dearth of storms for just a few more weeks...please, oh pretty please... I'm ready to rinse and then make one more go of it before my fantasy baseball draft.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Not really. I'd be stunned if we didn't see blocking in March.