40/70 Benchmark

I have had several nights in the 40s already.

I am optimistic for December.

That is part of what makes it fun to me.....how invested I am in winter is a byproduct of my need to get the snowstorm dopamine drip going coulpled with with the challange that LF presents. Its the snow addiciuton that fuels that drive needed to do the forecasting.

RONI is going to be reflective of a solid la Nina, which is supported by the pattern, as Chuck and Bluewave have been illustrating. I couldn't care less what the ONI does.

Well, yea....but they are the Acuna (when healthy) and Judge of long range forecasting. Snowman has some biases, as we all do, but he clearly knows his shit and adds a lot of value to the dicussion IMO.

I think 2014 is @snowman19's top analog.

Yea, I try to be conservative on this self-grading practice because I know how cheesy that is.

Nice guess on the intensity...I was surprised by that last minute spike.

JMO...but I think not reacting to posts like that will go a long way towards shedding the 5 PPD. I know its tough....its something I have been working on, as well. Its never desirable to allow someone on the internet to elicit a great deal of negative emotion from you because it causes others to view you in a more negative light.

Solidly....yes. .50ish+. We probably see one month average appreciably negative.

Hurricane Francine Strikes Louisiana Stronger Than Anticipated Track of Francine Very Well Forecast The Eastern Mass Weather First & Final Call forecast for the landfall of Hurricane Francine was a moderate success with mixed results, as intensity forecast left something to be desired. The system intensified right up until landfall as a category two hurricane with max sustained winds of 100mph, after appearing to have leveled off during most of the day on Wednesday. This was in contrast to the forecast, which called for weakening during the day on Wednesday and landfall as a category one hurricane with max sustained winds of 75mph. Post Forecast Analysis In terms of what went "wrong" with the forecast, from a track standpoint, absolutely nothing. The hurricane made landfall at essentially the precise point that it was forecast to, in the marshlands near the east side of Atchafalaya Bay to the southwest of Morgan City, LA. However, the forecast also called for for appreciable weakening during the day on Wednesday due to the continued intrusion of dry air and increasing wind shear in association with the mid level trough approaching from the west. The interaction of tropical entities with mid latitude systems is exceedingly complex and while their influence is often detrimental to the overall welfare of the tropical system, this is not always the case. In this instance, it is likely that divergence aaoft augmented the evacuation of air away from the hurricane at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, which acted to negate some of the aforementioned negate influence from drier air and wind shear. In fact, the impact of these inhibitors of development may have also been overstated given that Francine was only a minor to moderate strength hurricane, which needs less than an ideal environment to sustain itself, in contrast to a more intense system. Final Grade: C+

Kudos for catching this. I interpreted that as a bit for a red flag on my call for appreciable wearing prior to LF, but ultimately ignored and at my own peril, as it turns out. Francine intensified precisely under that area of upper divergence just prior to landfall, which negated the negative influence of the dry air/shear via enhanced evacuation of air aloft IMO. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/09/hurricane-francine-strikes-louisiana.html Call it a C+ since I nailed the track.

Well, that has characterized the past few years.....so....

Interesting to see 1999, which is high on my analog list.

No one in the world anticipates a -NAO in the DM mean....however, if you are suggesting that it will be extremely positive, then I disagree.

Yea, that's a hybrid event.

Yea, I didn't expect that.

Still in line with my thoughts....excellent.

Only did the one call on this yesterday, but if I we're to do a Final today as usual I would go 90mph at landfall...maybe 85.

Usually mixed signals with respect to intensity trend in hurricanes are indicative of essentially steady state.

raindance's tentative main analog

Eh....I verify based on official intensity. No doubt in my mind we aren't seeing sustained 90mph sustained winds anywhere on land...even 75, I doubt.

One small error I may have made was to overestimate how much the degradation of the prelandfall environment will weaken the system...as a cat 1 hurricane can sustain itself in far less than ideal conditions and I could have been more mindful of that. I could see it coming in a bit stronger than my 75mph LF call, even though I got the max intensity correct.

Yea, its not that rare...even in a shitty pattern since the wavelengths are different and warm SSTs aren't really a factor for Brian.

The wager is concerning Northfield, not Tolland. Not sure what Kev's ruler has to do with this.