40/70 Benchmark

It won't abate until later this decade.

December 1993 got going late, though..started right after Xmas. 2007 is my favorite December of all time.

That is how it is going to be even if we do well this season....it won't look like 1995 at H5.

Yep...that is my interpretation of that....but the point being its not a slam-dunk skunk as it may appear to some at first glance.

It also looks like the cold dumps west in December due to a stout RNA, which gives way to more PNA as the season progresses...that is something I have noted in some of the analogs.

Save the sarcasm, as I'm just commenting on what I see...not implying this will verify. That said, sooner or latter we are going to have to catch a break and I think if we were to this season, then it would look a lot like that.

CFS actually looks decent for winter IMO, but not that this means anything. I know last year it was heavily biased towards a stock El Nino regime, which was far too optimistic for us....this year FWIW, it looks like a favorable La Nina to me. December is the worst month, but it still looks good for at least the northern half of New England, as that PV is elongated to the southeast...kind of looks like 12/2007. By January, its evident that more poleward Aleutian ridging is causing everything to press SE so its a colder look. February the progresson continues..... The by March the pattern backs off a bit...

God, that nuclear forcing around the MC continues to just eradicate any semblance of intersting weather for east coast enthusiasts....winter or tropical.

Yea, indirect...the airmass along with it.

It defintely ensured there was plenty of moisture to the south...

I think on a grander, multi decadal scale, it shifted in the late 90s.....if you go back throughout history, you are never going to find a stretch where it is exclusively either positive or negative for 30 years or so...one phase will be prevalent throughout a given period. I consider this negative phase as having began after the 1997 super el nino with a couple of periods of positive PDO mixed in amidst a sea of negatve. The last + multidecadal period was from about 1975-1998....Its been negative from 1998-2024. Its going to flip later this decade.

.19" for me.

Always hedge east of forecast track up here....at least in the absence of a full capture.

Bob was stronger, but only a small sliver of se NE was on the dirty side...where I was just NE of Boston, Bob was virtually a non-event...Gloria was more memorable.

07-08 and 08-09 are my best back to back months of December.

All you are basing that on is the ENSO subsurface....2022 is an ideal QBO analog, decent solar and very good extratropical Pacific analog.

2020 was near solar min...and you are weighting ONI too heavily...the atmosphere is going to respond in a manner that is reflective of a healthy la Nina. It won't be quite as strong as 2022, but that year is a good analog.

Yea, LES is a cheat code.

Your area is an exception bc of LES.

I could def. see this December playing out similarly. That could have easily worked out for my area with a cleaner transfer, but I agree with you that its much harder for areas further south in that pattern now vs in the past.

Not my first choice, but I will roll the dice again with a set up similar to 2022-2023...especially where I am. Not so much significantly to my south...

I know that Bluewave is going to come in and say it didn't work out because of the low heights out west due in part to the West Pac warm pool, but I think its a bit more nuanced than that....its more of an uphill battle than it was 50 years ago to be sure, but make no mistake about it....that still could have worked out and there was some bad luck involved, too.

Its means its an "antilog"....IOW, opposite pattern to what is expected. This is why Raindance is always meantioning great east coast snowfall years as antilogs over the course of the last several years.

I think there is a decent shot of: 1) The PV beginning the season somewhat weak before going to town. 2) A pretty major disruption in February-March, however, whether or not the coast reaps the benefits of said disruption is somewhat dubious.

Started looking at the extra tropical pacific a bit today...everything considered, I really like 2022 as an analog....and as bad as that season was, it defenitely left something on the table for the east coast. December and March could have been significantly better.