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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the past decade or so has aptly demonstrated that Pacific cooperation is more important than blocking in this stout, CC enhanced PAC cold phase.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Having a 1, 3 and 5 yo to take out tonight, bring it on.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Combo of powerful Pacific cold phase and CC.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    It now aligns with where a lot of the seasonals have the warmth centered this winter....in the N plains.....wonder if cold from Canada may be abit more accessible to the NE relative to last year.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Kind of like Dec 2007 and 2008...
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Some similarities with respect to winter in these analog packages.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Canada def. won't be as warm as last season because that "El Nina" configuration was a perfect storm for that, so by default much of the nothern US should be a bit cooler...even NE.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I guess the hope this year is that the mean ridge location is actually a bit WSW of us this year....have seen some hints of that in seasonal guidance.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    O
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its easy to say that in hindsight, but those largescale patterns don't always lock into place. The key is knowing when they will and which ones to key in on.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    First flakes this AM per wife. 29 off of a high of 49.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    JB kept advertising a big cold flip like all season long.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    BIG game tonight....do or die.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its dumb to run seasonal guidance that frequently.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I guess I should have said "At least we can still see a pathway to a decent winter at this juncture"...that is really what I meant.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think I had about 1' in that. Yea, I guess that month was okay...just didn't stand out in my recollection.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its makes big polar blocking less likely.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    You are taking what I said too literally, but some years were close...especially south of New England.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    At least its not clearly a lost cause, which is all we can ask for these days.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I'll take the currier and ives xmas week or on the heels of a big dog, but otherwise my eyes would glaze over.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks for the clarification. I expect RONI to peak in moderate territory...tough call, agreed. I would be fine with a 2021-2022 type of result or even 2022-2023 with a bit less amplification out west.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    CONUS as a whole, but the east will take a true El Nino over La Nina...and I say "true " El Nino because I am not referring to that hellish hybrid that we had last year.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    My opinion on this is that La Nina itself if weak sauce in that its not the driving mechanism, however, the warm pool baseline is mimicking a stronger La Nina, so it doesn't really matter...same end result. If we are being consistent with ourselves, then that should lead to a period of disconnect from said baseline due to the ebb and flow of the wave strength.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think this just proves that @bluewaveis actually human..as bright as he is. He just won't support a respectable winter in the NE again until it actually happens at this point, but I would prefer he just say that then make a subtle effort to move the goalposts.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly...kind of what I was getting at. All we hear about is how phase 5 runs the world, but now that the October rule has worked out....weak sauce.
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