40/70 Benchmark

Something is up with it lately, but here it is... https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/index.html

This winter I got 99 problems, but a dud Nina ain't one.

Hopefully Ernesto is the last snoozer-system for awhile.

Right...all I meant in my replay to @mitchnick...which is why the hope would be for Bluewave's amplified MC MJO in October to salavge any kind of respectable winter in the east.

A warm DM for most of the east is a given......but I guess I would take the core of the "cold" being in the N plains vs the PNW, as perhaps we could get come front-ender table scraps here in central New England before systems transition to rain.

2010-2011 was central based...it wasn't west.

I don't agree with that....its reversed. A canonical El Nino is east based, as the WWB pile the warmest anomalies into the eastern zones, but in a mature La Nina, the easterly trades push them west. East-based events are weaker on average.

Already into weak La Nina range.

You have it backwards.....it would produce a stronger cool ENSO Walker Cell relative to the ONI, as was the case in 2022-2023.

The easterly trades tend to push the max anomalies west, so stronger trades generally equal a stronger, more west based La Nina.

I couldn't care less what the ONI does...La Nina will be moderate.

Stay safe.

I would love a cold December...I disagree.

Yea, could be.

I would honestly act like we have hit the lottery with a +2 winter.

I prefer 1999 and 2007...1999 is a better solar, QBO and ENSO match than 1998.

TBH, I am rooting on La Nina....the discrepany between RONI and ONI will ensure that the only path to a decent winter for most of the east coast is for the La Nina to beef up enough to excite an amplified MC MJO response during the fall, so that hopefully its more subdued come winter. Bit more margin for error from around the latitide of central Mass and points north, but I am talking for most.

Yea, you are probably right, but from my perspective there is no need to rush anything out...makes no difference whether I do it in late August or late September/early October.

Its like groundhog day....every season is the same, regardless of ENSO, solar, underwear or no underwear....we have a bloodbath off of Japan, a -3.56546 PDO, Raindance assembling an antilog list that includes any respectable east coast snowfall season that ends up being lethally accurate, and Bluewave responding to an alarm over his bedside that alerts of him of any expressed optimism pertaining to east coast winter, so that he can come in and promptly assinate spirits with a reminder about the warm pool and some god awful charts referencing the Pacific over the past 9 seasons. We also have snowman chiming in about some esoteric index from the middle east that supports the continued development of La Nina and is hostile for eastern snow and cold.

Yes, I won't be shoecked if I look like an idiot when someone like Kevin bumps that with the benefit of hindsight in a month or two. Just an impulsive comment triggered by the subjective sentiment that seasons lke 2005 and 1995 had faced a lot less resistance to this point.

Yea, that's fair. All I am saying is it needs to fire up soon to hit 200 ACE.

I don't doubt that. All I am saying is that it needs to fire up quickly on order to get over 200 ACE.

The westerlies are very prominent at this latitude later in the summer and throughout the cold season....any tropical system is going to encounter those and recurve south of us, so in order to be far enough west to still track over the area, it will have crossed over a significant amount of land first....a la Debby. There is a reason that we are directly impacted by a major tropical system so infrequently...its not as it is further south, where you can just hope for a slightly less abrupt turn.

At this range, there are always going to be some "interesting" ensemble members. These systems curving out south of NE are a mirage with respect to perceived proximity/probability of major impact in the absence of a major ULL or trough over the lakes to draw it in.

Well, look it up...its true.