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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    That other blob is a non-starter for any RI....take that clear off of the table.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it looks okay for a TS nearing cane strength....not great.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the best window for intensification will be overnight tonight, as it gets a bit further from mainland MX and perhaps passess over an eddy of very high TCHP before the more hostile conditions set in tomorrow.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    In terms of the consensus, I agree...this is why I qualified my statement with the term "relative".....all that was meant was the window for higher end that appeared to be opening a bit yesterday has closed.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I didn't think it was that difficult to grasp.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    First of all, many were speculating on a 3 and some guidance was even hinting at 4. Secondly, I think cat 2 is a reach at this point. I think maybe 100mph is the ceiling, which jives with the NHC stating that their 100mph forecast was at the high end of guidance.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think its going to become as strong as some were speculating. Should still be a hurricane, though. The operative word in my statement was relative.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think you overstate the significance of the timing. The very amplifed pattern out west was the much larger issue than the timing....it sucked in December and it sucked in March. You aren't getting much snow in the mid atl with a trough that deep out west...doesn't matter when it is.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think Francine is going to be a relative bust, which is a microcosm of the season.....there is a reason why I have jumped to blog about it. I will probably put a one-and-done post out today, though.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think Francine is going to be a relative bust, which is a microcosm of the season.....there is a reason why I have jumped to blog about it. I will probably put a one-and-done post out today, though.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes...I was skeptical of that 2 years ago, but I'm now ready to buy that element of CC after getting burned badly. However, I think for New England its still not as bad as it appears because there was some bad luck. Mid Atl its game over in that pattern now....and def. more precarious for SNE.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Both good analogs IMO.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have always thought that was a given- Its still a bit more east-based than I thought it would be, which should change.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I never doubted you on that....I recall all too vividly how many times RNA has deprived us the spoils of the NAO blocking over the course of the past few seasons....especially in 12/22 and 3/23.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not too engaged on this one, but my inclincation is that final LF intensity will be comparable to Beryl in TX.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    44.8
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't weight it too much per se, but @Stormchaserchuck1's NAO formula was pretty dead nuts on the mean of my polar analogs as of a few weeks ago...though I think this has gotten more positive.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. Perhaps the WPO/EPO behave similarly, but I think the PDO and La Nina are bad matches.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think 2007 is a pretty good analog...not perfect. Not a huge fan of 2013.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    That was my snowiest month of December on record.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    This looks like 2007-2008....could work with that. +1F either slightly above average precip.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    That looks decent for me. Seeing a theme among seasonal guidance of the heat being focused around the Texarkana with relative cooler values the deeper once goes into New England. Real 2007-2008 vibe...
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was describing that model output...nothing more.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm just getting a rise out of you. I don't see a -NAO in the seasonal mean or an east based event.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I never said Feb and March look great. I said maybe blocking tries in March. The NAO should average Positive in January, but there could be some carry over from December.
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