40/70 Benchmark

I haven't seen anyone suggest a cold December.....what I have seen is the suggestion that it will be the one month featuring temps relatively close to normal during a very mild winter.

Makes sense to me....ONI is often rubbish in this new world.

Yea, I agree that sounds ludicrous, but I do think that it could slow the rate of warming....again, that is all I took from this.

Def. grain of salt after reading this site last season and then seeing how the winter evolved....but does lend creedence to my idea that the winter shouldn't be wall-to-wall ++AO/NAO.... https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/south-pole-stratospheric-warming-winter-2024-2025-influence-forecast-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ Main points: A strong stratospheric warming event is ongoing over the South Pole. It will disrupt the southern polar vortex and help to create and sustain high-pressure anomalies on the surface. The south pole pressure forecast for August-October shows a prolonged period of high-pressure anomalies, creating a negative circulation pattern. Past data and studies show that prolonged high-pressure anomalies over the South Pole in the August-Oct period can influence the weather over the Northern Hemisphere in the following weeks/months. The most likely cause of the weather impacts is the stratospheric connection between the northern and southern polar vortex that helps to transfer the atmospheric dynamics. The prevalent signal in the data shows that strong high-pressure anomalies over the South Pole in the August-Oct period correspond to lower pressure anomalies over the United States and Canada in the Winter season. The data also shows colder-than-normal temperatures over much of the central and eastern parts of the United States. Over Europe, the prevailing signal is a high-pressure anomaly and warmer temperatures during the Winter season. The main final point: These signals and connections are not a fixed rule, as the signal is weak enough to indicate it is not a main (large) driving force of the Winter weather patterns. But it is still visible and does show some form of a role in the overall large-scale atmospheric circulation.

I didn't see any mention of the term "ice age, except from you. I was simply inferring from the article that the cessation of the Gulf Stream could act to quell the uber-rapid "hockey stick" rate of warming that he have observed recently....but I'm sure that would have some drastic implications.

Yea, the path to said balance may not necessarily be hospitable for society.

What is interesting is the implication that the cessation of the gulf stream could cause a dramtic cooling over N America and Europe at some point. I have always maintained that the planet will likely find a way to balance things out, as it usually does. We'll see....def out of my wheelhouse.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/08/02/climate/atlantic-circulation-collapse-timing

I'm sure you have been up all night worried-sick!

I will take that over this.

I think its a given that Canada will be colder than last year, so at least New England can pull off a serivcable snowfall season if we can have some better fortune with respect to the timing of +PPs. For instace, while the jet mechanics may trigger amplification well to the west, there can still be some appreciable front end snowfalls with better timing. We haven't even had much of that the past couple of years. That is often what distinguishes a "meh" season from a truly horrendous one.

As you so often point out, CC was in its relative infancy back then.

Exactly.

If it strikes us, it will have already moved inland over the southeast. There is no scenario at play where this thing gets pulled quickly to the north just off of the coast.

Ineedsnow is like the reincarnation of James.

Either is fine by me considering what the last two winters have looked like. I will take a holiday season that isn't prohibitive to snowfall and feels festive.

I would take a neutral December and mild rest of the winter.

Totally agree. I continue to feel as though the winter will be fairly mild overall for the east, but not as exotically so as last season.

Where did you relocate from in the south?

Now, get the 3-4" storm on XMAS/eve XMAS, then its different...that has more value.

Seasonal snowfall is what it is, though.....if you get 40" in one storm, and 3" the rest of the winter, it was still an above average snowfall season in terms of snowfall if you average 40". Sure, being above normal in terms of temps is another matter.

You and Kevin should get a room in the Tundra.

See, I'm the opposite...keep your three weeks of currier and ives in January......give me 42" of snow in 20 minutes in exchange for 50 degrees in Janaury.

I don't agree for now.

This season, on paper, looks even worse, which lends itself to the saving grace that it will probably be somewhat better.