40/70 Benchmark

I really don't agree that a pro is automatically a better seasonal forecaster. I think the best are those that allocate the most time to it. ..which includes a lot of amateurs. Its not really something you can learn in a text book...seasonal forecasting is a unique skill that represents the nexus of science and art.

My final ENSO update...last blog from me until Outlook release roughly 11/11. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/10/weakening-trend-of-enso-guidance.html

Tremendously bright guy, but he was too abrasive...which is probably why this great idea never launched.

Kind of... https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/raindance-weather#/ The Purpose of Raindance Weather My name is Jacob Mazel. I am trying to create crowd-sourced seasonal weather forecasts by turning my current website Raindance Weather which is little more than an Indiegogo demonstration currently, into a weather prediction market. For daily forecasts, weather prediction markets are already a proven concept (Weather Prediction Market). My goal is develop a seasonal weather forecasting market for US cities - i.e is the winter going to be snowier than usual in Albuquerque? How about in Chicago or in your city? It is my belief that over time strong opinions about the weather from amateurs would produce a very reliable seasonal weather forecast. I have some evidence to back up my belief. Before Albuquerque's snow season of 2014-2015, I had my co-workers guess how much snow Albuquerque would get each month. Winners, in terms of forecasts matching observed conditions, received free pizza. With the exception of February when we had very rare heavy snow, the overall predictions were quite accurate. You can see the results for yourself below (original hand written guesses follow the Excel summary). With more people betting, a way for betters to indicate confidence in their bet, and knowledge of who had good foresight from previous forecasting contests, the results would have been even better. Users on Raindance Weather would also be given more information that my co-workers were - I only gave out snow averages by month, using the winter of 1931-1932 to 2013-2014 for my base period. Most weather data can be easily verified too. Right now, all I have is a very basic template I built, and I can not afford to hire people to help me develop it properly without funding. I am interested in doing this because I would like accurate seasonal forecasts for my city, Albuquerque, New Mexico, and I am sure people in other places, particularly in the West where mountains and topography make seasonal forecasting difficult would be interested in good, place specific, long range forecasts, More generally, I have a long standing interest in predictions and what makes them work or not, and this project allows me to explore that interest further. I've made some bold predictions in the video game industry in the past (Five year prediction) which essentially verified (Forecast Verification). I would like to give people not just the opportunity to prove they can predict long range weather trends well, but the wisdom of a forecast generated by the masses. What We Need & What You Get Raindance Weather currently does not allow for users to register and as it stands now you can't use it for forecasting. This crowdfunding pitch is to try to raise $65,000 to develop out that functionality. For that much money I can: Hire web development help ($20,000 - $60,000). The full $60,000 would cover tying the fake betting scheme to user accounts while $20,000 covers a much more basic site. Provide custom tools and visualizations to analyze forecasts and forecasters. Pay for servers Hire researchers to help with collecting data for various cities. These people would also help with forecast verification. Forecasts will be verified with NOW Data, and Weather Warehouse data for the USA. Both NOW and the Weather Warehouse archive data from the National Weather Service (NWS). Reimburse some of my personal costs - my logo, time, web video, domain, legal research, new laptop ($600). Advertise / convince people to participate and stay on the site. Produce custom, big data research. If I don't reach my goal fully, the website will become less sophisticated, but there are other approaches. One approach would be Survey Monkey. Even with less money it would be possible to buy "survey takers" from Survey Monkey, and then use their insights to generate forecasts. Why Should I Contribute? Contributing to this project puts you on your way to seeing how people from vastly different backgrounds think seasonal weather will play out in your backyard. If you think the weatherman on TV making long-range forecasts is an idiot, you also have a way to prove that you're right, or that he is wrong. I certainly can't stop you from entering in predictions from your TV weatherman to see how they verify...you can be the curmudgeon here! More generally, by contributing to this campaign, you are helping me undergo a grand experiment that should yield some interesting results: Can a crowd produce an accurate seasonal weather forecast? Can the crowd match or beat individual expert forecasters? We can answer these questions with user interest and ongoing participation. Overtime, the results may become good enough to save lives and dollars. There are a hand full of brilliant long range forecasters out there now - Joe Bastardi, Dave Tolleris, Joe D'Aleo - but they are aging. One of the benefits of contributing to this campaign would be to help discover the next wave of brilliant long-range forecasters. One of the reasons I want web development help is to collect basic user information. We can collect and analyze this information in all sorts of ways. Do men make better forecasters? How about older people? In our snow experiment, the older folks in the office won the individual months each time, but I, at the age of 27, had the closest seasonal call. Do people living in the area they are forecasting predict differently than people outside the area? I am curious to see if studying the weather actually makes you a good forecaster. We could ask people to rate their knowledge of the weather when they sign up and then see if the people who rated themselves highly actually forecast well. Risks & Challenges There are many challenges to this project. One is interest. This campaign is designed not just to raise money, but to see if interest in this project exists on a large enough scale. For forecasts to be possible, users will need to continue to bet their fake currency over time, which means...we need users. I am hoping the possibility of being known as the best forecaster for something like snowfall outlooks, will keep users interested. I would like to offer some kind of prize, beyond additional fake currency for the winners, but this gets a little bit tricky legally. Still researching how to do this. To promote interest, I will reach out to various weather forums, weather forecasters with many twitter followers, and use Fiverr favors for promotion. In the future, I will also ask users what types of forecasting they would like to see. Will Florida get hit by a hurricane this year? Will sea ice reach record lows? Is there really a Maunder Minimum coming? Perhaps we could even look at global warming issues. Anything verifiable would be doable with user interest. One possible final way to keep users interested would be to allow proven users to post forecasts of their choice. The users would be able to sell their forecasts, and keep most of the money (Raindance would keep some of it too.) I used to work for a video game website, we were never super-popular, but we had steady, reliable users, so I believe once a base of users is established, the site could become quite useful and interesting. Other Ways You Can Help If you can't contribute financially, please pitch the site. If you are in a sports league - pitch this idea there. This is essentially fantasy weather. Use the Indiegogo share tools. Promote this campaign with Facebook, Twitter, Linkedin, Pinterest, Etsy, Tumblr, Snapchat, Kik, Email, Texts, Conversation, whatever it takes - it all helps! Thanks everybody!

I also didn't care for how condescending he could be, either. Plenty of folks here that I don't see eye to eye with, but don't have any issues.

Does anyone know here to find an archived version of this to access past data?

I used his ACE composites...I not only cited it, but hyperlinked his twitter and strongly recommended him as a follow....but that isn't even it. He claimed I literally copied his seasonal forecast composites.

I don't care about passionately debating weather...no issue with that.

You thought accusing me of plagiarizing his work was fair dialogue??

Yea, he was a jerk, but a very good forecaster. I am not sure why you would post on a public weather forum if not for the desire to exchange forecasting techniques and share a passion for the weather. I did some snooping on the internet and it seems he was in it to try to pitch an idea similar to fantasy weather, but couldn't garner any investors so gave it up.

You sound like raindance before he evaporated. I agree to an extent...

I saw that...I don't read too much into that, but it may cause me to cut back a hair on the peak in the final product.

Dude, night and day between your post quality from now to like 3 years ago...I remember when everything was a blizzard with you..like literally. Lol

Should be a really strong push towards -1.0C in 3.4 over the next week or so before that happens.

La Niña should be peaking pretty quickly...

And even if you get the DM seasonal concept generally correct in terms of the mean index calculation, good luck with the timing of the seasonal progression.

You must be going by some other metric because we haven't had a negative NAO winter since 2009-2010 going by CPC.

You can....feel free. But given how difficult the polar domain is to forecast on a seasonal level, I consider every tool that I can.

Its just another piece of guidance, all of which have their stengths and limitations. It makes sense to me that it would fall flat during a super el Nino...for instance, the polar domain was actually pretty decent in 1997-1998, but due to the situation at hand it didn't matter. I think its fine to use the SAI to either increase or decrease confidence in a forecast and/or in the absence of no other prevalent indicators.

Yea.

I'm not debating your point, but I will say that I do think it offers some utility. I certainly wouldn't base an entire outlook off of it....I use it to either bolster confidence or to introduce an alternate perspective.

Well, you made sure to post his tweet when he said it didn't look good.

He just posted last week that it looked like crap after a promising start.

@bluewaveDo you have those graphics that you used to show how last season's extreme warmth was a blend of unfavorable cool ENSO and warm ENSO elements?