40/70 Benchmark

Those years arrive at those RONI values in a far different manner, though.

Yes and that is the part I am most hopefully about changing this season. I don't expect the hemisphere to be much different.

Absolutely. This is why the lower MEI and RONI relative to the ONI were actually symbolic of a fatal hemispheric issue for NE winter enthusiasts last season.

What I didn't understand was that last year, the weaker coupling of El Nino with the atmosphere was merely a reflection of the very prevalent cool ENSO background, which was/is evident by the west PAC being ablaze. This made the positioning of the el Nino (Modoki scale) largely irrelevent because the forcing was pinned to the MC, regardless. However, in years like 1965 and 1957 and 2009, since we didn't have the west PAC inferno, the weaker coupling of el Nino to the atmosphere was indeed indicative of a weaker warm ENSO walker cell, which truely was more redolent of a modoki and thus favorable for NE cold and snow. What it comes down to is we must not only determine the intensity of El Nino, but if it is weaker, WHY is it weaker.....figure out which other players in the atmosphere are competing with it, how much proxy they will have and how the assertion of said factors will manifest in the configuration of the overall pattern around the hemisphere. The other major players on the field in 2009 and 1957 were an exceptionably favorable extra tropical Pacific and arctic/atlantic. 1965 featured a very favorable arctic/atlantic, which was more helpful to NE cold/snow interests in the face of a hostile extra tropicl Pacific without the immense degree of west PAC warmth. We have been far too reductive in our analysis of ENSO and the changing climate is exposing that more than ever before. Bluewave has been ahead of his time amongst mainstream meteorological circles.

Yes, I correctly pointed out all of that in last season's outlook, complete with schematics, but again....totally screwed the pooch on what impact it would have. Frustratingly educational.

Gonna preface this with the disclosure that I understand that dews and probably heat are not done with us yet, but this AM was a refreshing first harbinger of fall. Solar max is over this weekend and the heat doesn't have quite the same bite when Australian tushies begin to grill on car seats. 52.5 for the low.

I think that likely reality is much more widely accepted this season. But who knows....get an active N stream with a fortuitously timed Aleutian boner and we could steal some thunder, however fleeting it may be.

I misunderstood the implications of this last year, but I won't make that same mistake again this season.....my forecast will be off because I'll make some other assortment of mistakes.

I think the ONI lagging maybe at least partially attributable to the SOI disconnect (residual from strong El Nino), which causes that particular metric to underestimate the intensity of the cool ENSO Walker cell.....much like what was observed last season when the west PAC warm pool maked the intensity of the El Nino.

I will take an active N branch over a strong STJ any day of the week in my neck of the woods. I undersrand that its different not too far to my south and that temps are still likely to be an issue this year.

Thank you. I am still bitter about how things ended at Eastern and how the forum and everything on it is not in accessible.

So obvious guidance had backed off too much on La Nina, just like it had at this point last year with respect to el Nino. I still feel good about my ENSO peak expectations.

Yes-Ray. Thanks alot. If it's too cumbersome- don't worry about it, but if you have the time to run a hindsight of that formula for 1970, please let me know.

It will, but ironically enough that is probably a fairly accurate assessment of the peak intensity of this ENSO.

@Stormchaserchuck1, what is the current calculation for your subsurface NAO index? Could you hindcast if for the 1970-1971 winter season if you get time? TIA.

Right.

This is splittling hairs, though....I of course agree that this winter doesn't look great for the NE.

Similar to the 2021-2022 forecast, more poleward than the rest. Anyway, I said more stout than the 2016-2024 mean as in verificaiton, not the mean of all seasonal forecasts.

Its good when its warm for the east, bad when its cold...sounds reductive, but that philosophy if fail-proof over the past 9 years.

1999 is a better analog then 2011.

One thing I will say is that EURO product looks to have a pretty poleward Aleutian ridge...more stout than the 2016-2024 mean.

I haven't posted about this system once throughout its entire life. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Yes, it will def. be a strong westerly QBO..

1991, 1992 and 2011 didn't, although the former two were directly following Pinatubo, so bit of an asterisk there. Obviously the winter is very likely to average a +NAO and probably AO, but I think what this means is we may see at least one month with decent blocking, which jives with my early inclination from looking at analogs.

I like all of those analog years.