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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    2020 and 2022 are good analogs in that respect...November to January for the peak with my money being on January.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we are going to have something similar to this second group with respect to the N PAC.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    One thing I am certain of is that Canada will be colder this year than it has been the past few years, which means that even assuming another amplifying hydro-bomb blasts inland due to a western displaced baro-zone...there will be a hellacious front-ender on the coast as an appetizer. This is something we have been deprived of lately due to prohibitive warmth and bad timing.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    @bluewavehas indicated as such....specifically that Decemebr 2021 deal that left a trail of naked handstands from Binghamton to Dendrite.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    John, I wonder if that excess of heat due to the current network of adjoining bathtubs across the globe could also help to beef up QPF this cold season, as well....even if progressive due to the velocity in the flow, some of these waves that amplify may be able to tap into that. I mean look at the Gulf......interesting to see how much of that is compromised by the balance of tropical activity this fall.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just being an ass
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes. I was going to add that, but felt the varied impact of how said balance is achieved on humans was implicit.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I do not agree that solar isn't a player. While your analysis of the HC is likely a primary driver this season, even a curosry glance at the data implies a definitive negative correlation between the solar cycle and ACE output.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Perfect illustration of why CC doesn't automatically mean a 300 ACE every season....not to mention shear from an active Pacific. The globe finds a way to ensure that everything has a check and a balance.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I definitely think the high solar has something to do with it.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was mentioning that is a new twist this season per the CANSIPS and CFS and why they are colder.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know...I have come to agree with most of your stuff. I just laugh because otherwise I'd cry.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course, Bluewave's state of the art optimism alert system promptly made him aware and he arrives on the scene in short order to fill the collective cheerios with urine.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like the CFS and CANSIPS. I included 1970 in my preliminary polar analog composite, as it was a high solar La Nina. Don't love the +PDO look of some of those years, though.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Should be out Thursday.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    This make sense given the expectation for a meager winter and the penchant for hyper tropical activity to coincide with low solar.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    JMA has warmer anaomlies in the north...not sure I agree with that.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    JMA has a similar pattern, but less amplified than the EURO
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    EURO is a carbon copy of 2022-2023...wow. Just a hair less amplified with the RNA, which could still work for a lot of NE.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    CFS looks even better, but qualitatively similar.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Watch, NYC will get 10" this December and a trace the rest of the season.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like the orientation of the PV, though that is tough to predict on a seasnal level.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I neglected the WPO that season and it completely burned me, so I would caution against doing that for those pessimists.
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