40/70 Benchmark

I don't think the west coast troughing will be as extreme.

2022 is a very good analog...been saying that all summer.

I don't think it's going to be a ++WPO like last year...

I get that the aggregatre anomalies in the mean are all that matter for purposes of verification, but those little idosyncracies matter come cold season. No one cares if Windsor, VT only hits 21 instead of 18 on a clear Tuesday night in January, if 31 abd snowing a few days later.

I was in Uganda for that one.

I get it can be annoying to see someone seemingly trying to evade responsibility for a busted forecast in search of validation, but there is always a reason for every busted forecast and I think determining said reason is the important part of forecasting. We all miss some...especially at a seasonal timescale.

Could also end up beng one of those CC patented, fradulent "warm" months when it seems cool during our day-to-day activities, but warmth is realized while we sleep under the cover of night.

I agree. This weekend looks reasonably warm, I think...nothing savage, but...

Would love that to persist into the cold season.

Its several different factors, which definitely includes CC.

I agree with this. We don't have the margin for error that we used to, but I also think that some of this in the northern hemisphere is due to the +AMO as well.

Well, part of this is due to being at the low point of a -PDO multidecadal cycle...its a combo of that and CC.

Yea, I'm assuming that....but it doesn't negate my point. I'm not arguing that the climate hasn't warmed or that it doesn't augment ridges...but that N Pacific pattern is more favorable in the latter composite. One had a very flat ridge with lower heights knifing through AK and one has a poleward Aleutian ridge.

Looks as though the negative anomaly in Canada is stronger, as well due to a better N PAC...so there is definitely some bad luck involved. Its a combo of shit luck and a bad pattern that has yielded dreadful returns. Maybe not so much for the mid atl, as its been more of an awful pattern for those areas...but I know up here in NE, we just have not been able to time an antecedent high well...even assuming a track west, which would turn to rain...so not even as many front enders.

Someone needs to in vitro this biatch.

I was guilty on some of those last year, but I think most people can see where I went astray...it certainly wasn't due to blind bias like some of these guys.

That said, I would like the Cs to take out a restraining owner on Henry...he would trade most of these big contracts ASAP.

I would take Henry over Kraft as an owner...hands down.

Kraft is a great bussiness and and a shitty NFL owner.

Bit different...Henry is a great owner when he wants to be...but after using the Sox as a vehicle of ascent for FSG he is now content to be more frugal and avail of the fact that Fenway is a tourist destination. Kraft was always a shitty owner that picked the right coach who got the goose that laid the golden football for 20 years.

I honestly am not not a fan of Kraft...I will give him credit for Belicheck, but otherwise I think he is cheap and more concerned with public image than winning. Having Brady for 20 years masked how much he sucks as an owner and now we are seeing it. Bill is gone and they still don't spend, so the idiotic notion that Bill was deciding how much they spend is put to bed. He massages his prostate to all of this "cap space", which is fake, anyway, at Orchids of Asia and does nothing with it. Make no mistake about it....cap is only an illusion for owners to rationalize being cheap....there are so many ways around that....owners that want to spend just keep restructuring deals to concvery money into a signing bonus.

I don't agree. I think they have botched this transition tremendously. It was clear that they didn't have a plan post Brady and they continued to draft poorly and refuse to spend on players or coaches. Obviously that level of success had to end, but they didn't need to become the laughing stock of the league to the point where the Jaguars are mocking them.

Yea, that was a hair below normal snowfall here. I would take that and run this year. Funny, a decade ago I would cringe at that season.

I think they have something...just need to avoid f&&king it up, which may be tough because they have been exposed as one of those organizations now that B & B are gone.

That year is a great example of how to still get it done in NE in an ostensibly brutal pattern....huge PV that is elongated to the SE.