40/70 Benchmark

And I wasn't far enough north, either....my Final update will also need adjustments, as will most.

Jeb has been on these board for the better part of two decades, he isn't new.

There has def, been a large deviation from perma La Niña since 1998.

Makes sense given the hemisphere still had great cool ENSO tendencies that belied the rather robust warm ENSO interval.

I like RONI better than the ONI TBH..last year was a great example of the limitations of the MEI.

Usually RONI and MEI are more reflective of the subsurface than ONI.

This is what 2010 was (not claiming it's an analog)...hybrid with an eastward lean. That said, I understand there are other key differences from that season, such as solar, QBO, West PAC, etc...

I was speaking in a hypothetical sense.

I really don't understand why Ryan posted that image, especially without any context. It's two completely different scenarios, and it just misleads. I am astounded sometimes at professional mets. I realize they're human and susceptible to excitement and hype. The adrenaline gets to me sometimes as well. But there is a limit. This is not Harvey 2.0.... Good on Webb there. It deserved a good thorough explanation of why this is not the same situation to curb any fears for pre and post landfall. Yes, we have been on the same throughout and that remains the case.

I agree with this, but I think an east-based La Niña over the eastern Pacific could be more advantageous in terms of some favorable windows for wintry weather, even if the season is still mild in the aggregate.

I don't totally buy that. There definitely seems to be a bit more STJ infusion into N stream systems during a weak eEl Nino than there is during ENSO neutral.

This is why the forecast is for a cat 1 landfall. That is what I went with Thursday night, too.

Yes, Beryl's problem with a partial core, despite deep convection aiding in regenerating an MLC, is that it's not yet shielded off from the stable airmass that still lingers within the southern half of the circulation. The ULL is still too close and feeding that stable air into the mid-levels. And any nascent core is very prone to downdrafts in this scenario. So even this convection and attempt at a new core could rapidly collapse. We'll just have to see if it's resilient. If anything, this kind of continued bursting will moisten and assist in future convection. Obviously, the modest environmental conditions will continue to improve and become more favorable. I think this is where you just have to hedge and given the system's demonstrated resilience and tenacity, it has earned the benefit of doubt. May sound anecdotal, but at the end of the day it is these anecdotal hunches that usually distinguish between forecast success and failure.

I don't expect much intensification until Sunday.

It's not over the really warm water yet, not to mention the core distuption.

I commented earlier that this set up reminds me of 2007...it looks hostile for NE winter with a cursory glance, but if you squint, you can see how New England could do okay in terms of snowfall with cold nearby.

I don't need any convincing that this La Nina will act stronger than implied by ONI. No doubt.

I wasn't on Eastern in 2005. It was 2006. I'm positive...and you were right, as that winter torched. Remember? Jack O (RIP), the dude who started SV was all over region 1.2 leading the way in warm winter el Nino seasons, like that one.

No, it wasn't. It was the fall of 2006...no question in my mind. I joined Eastern in the fall of 2006 and it was that year.

Warmest winter call was 2006, not 2005. Keep in mind, I am not arguing for a "cold" winter...my confidence is that it will be snowier for at least SNE, which isn't saying much.

Should always be prepared for the worst, so sound advice.

Remember Erin and Katrina in FL ...came in as intensifying cat 1's and damage looked more like cat 2. Intensifying systems more proficiently mix down stronger wind gusts.

A- Nothing and Noone is forecasting RI. B- All guidance has shifted north into TX, not just the HAFS.

What did Boston get, 9" last year? I'll bet anyone right now $100 that we beat that.

Of course the NAO will be positive, I told you that back in May when you were doubting it...all I'm saying is that the January chart that I commented on is an example of how to salvage a decent winter in NE with a +NAO and healthy la Nina. Hindsight outlook 2007 and let me know how that looked for winter in New England..save for the QBO, but ACE will likely be higher this year.