40/70 Benchmark

I think that is it....the moderate composite also appears warmer than the strong because we have 2011-2012 in the modertate group and 2010-2011 in the strong.

You are well read...that is the only requisite to having an informed opinion.

I have not, but I agree with him 100%. I don't read enough independently and have been out of school several years now. Once my kids are older, I will find my way back.

The isolative tendency due to increased screen time at the cost of socialization is another element....its an externality of/opportunity cost for the decision to spend more time on FB, X,Insta, etc. Not to mention an inhibiting factor for cognitive growth and development.

Wildly OT, but this contributes greatly to the MH epidemic that is leading to a higher frequency of mass shootings. It creates cognitve dissonance and internal strife because people are conscious of the fact that they are engaging in behavior that is intrinsically detrimental to their sense of well-being and overall QOL, but they lack the will to stop. Willfully acting in a manner that is incongurent with one's self-esteem fosters a great deal of animosity that when coupled with increased impulsivity and a predilection for a "quick fix" is a real powder keg. Rage directed inward will usually end up coming out.

The most aggressive members imply high surf and maybe some rain for the outter cape and ACK.

One thing I will say is that ACE doesn't go bonkers, it makes the winter call very easy.

I think its reflective of the decay of society in general....less impulse control and a greater proclivity towards instant gratification....social media is killing us.

We make into September without anything other than Ernesto, then I think its fair to question some of these hyper-active calls...especially if Ernesto doesn't make major status, which would cap its ACE accumulation.

Which makes sense because if La Nina remains east-based, it is likley due to some competing force that prevented the event from fully maturing, which would be reflected by the RONI. What I love about that site is the ability use other climo periods, but that feature isn't working right now, so we're relegated to using 1991-2020, which of coruse skews anomalies colder. When I made the charts, I used the appropriate climo perios...for instance, 1941-1970 for 1974-1975.

I don't think its going to be wall-to-wall +AO/NAO...maybe mid winter will be.

Notice how is looks a lot more like the Modoki composite, rather than the east-based composite...this is what I was pointing out to Chuck.

Here is 1955-1956, as I have many of these saved.

Something is up with it lately, but here it is... https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/index.html

This winter I got 99 problems, but a dud Nina ain't one.

Hopefully Ernesto is the last snoozer-system for awhile.

Right...all I meant in my replay to @mitchnick...which is why the hope would be for Bluewave's amplified MC MJO in October to salavge any kind of respectable winter in the east.

A warm DM for most of the east is a given......but I guess I would take the core of the "cold" being in the N plains vs the PNW, as perhaps we could get come front-ender table scraps here in central New England before systems transition to rain.

2010-2011 was central based...it wasn't west.

I don't agree with that....its reversed. A canonical El Nino is east based, as the WWB pile the warmest anomalies into the eastern zones, but in a mature La Nina, the easterly trades push them west. East-based events are weaker on average.

Already into weak La Nina range.

You have it backwards.....it would produce a stronger cool ENSO Walker Cell relative to the ONI, as was the case in 2022-2023.

The easterly trades tend to push the max anomalies west, so stronger trades generally equal a stronger, more west based La Nina.

I couldn't care less what the ONI does...La Nina will be moderate.

Stay safe.