40/70 Benchmark

The easterly trades tend to push the max anomalies west, so stronger trades generally equal a stronger, more west based La Nina.

I couldn't care less what the ONI does...La Nina will be moderate.

Stay safe.

I would love a cold December...I disagree.

Yea, could be.

I would honestly act like we have hit the lottery with a +2 winter.

I prefer 1999 and 2007...1999 is a better solar, QBO and ENSO match than 1998.

TBH, I am rooting on La Nina....the discrepany between RONI and ONI will ensure that the only path to a decent winter for most of the east coast is for the La Nina to beef up enough to excite an amplified MC MJO response during the fall, so that hopefully its more subdued come winter. Bit more margin for error from around the latitide of central Mass and points north, but I am talking for most.

Yea, you are probably right, but from my perspective there is no need to rush anything out...makes no difference whether I do it in late August or late September/early October.

Its like groundhog day....every season is the same, regardless of ENSO, solar, underwear or no underwear....we have a bloodbath off of Japan, a -3.56546 PDO, Raindance assembling an antilog list that includes any respectable east coast snowfall season that ends up being lethally accurate, and Bluewave responding to an alarm over his bedside that alerts of him of any expressed optimism pertaining to east coast winter, so that he can come in and promptly assinate spirits with a reminder about the warm pool and some god awful charts referencing the Pacific over the past 9 seasons. We also have snowman chiming in about some esoteric index from the middle east that supports the continued development of La Nina and is hostile for eastern snow and cold.

Yes, I won't be shoecked if I look like an idiot when someone like Kevin bumps that with the benefit of hindsight in a month or two. Just an impulsive comment triggered by the subjective sentiment that seasons lke 2005 and 1995 had faced a lot less resistance to this point.

Yea, that's fair. All I am saying is it needs to fire up soon to hit 200 ACE.

I don't doubt that. All I am saying is that it needs to fire up quickly on order to get over 200 ACE.

The westerlies are very prominent at this latitude later in the summer and throughout the cold season....any tropical system is going to encounter those and recurve south of us, so in order to be far enough west to still track over the area, it will have crossed over a significant amount of land first....a la Debby. There is a reason that we are directly impacted by a major tropical system so infrequently...its not as it is further south, where you can just hope for a slightly less abrupt turn.

At this range, there are always going to be some "interesting" ensemble members. These systems curving out south of NE are a mirage with respect to perceived proximity/probability of major impact in the absence of a major ULL or trough over the lakes to draw it in.

Well, look it up...its true.

I don't really do any other seasons, but from what Chuck was saying it sounds like October and November maybe mild before a "cool" down in December.

I honestly don't think that was factored in enough....look at the uber active seasons like 1995 and 2005...they were all near solar min. There aren't any extremely high ACE seasns near solar max.

The further west it initially makes it, the sharper that parabolic curve will be underneath SNE. Same guys always chasing their own shadow.

I wasn't following along closely over the weekend, but I saw a retweet from MJO from a met along the lines of "If we get this ULL to stall here and kick the storm this way, then it waits for the next trough and blah, blah, then the threat isn't over for the east coast" and I knew it was over. When you see MJO and ineedsnow trying to bank hurricanes off of the garage to find a pathway into SNE, you need not look...its that time.

Getting to the point where this season is irreconcilibly dissapointing from a volume/ACE perspective. This one is a lost cause.

I think I'm going to hold off on doing the extra tropical Pacific until latter Septmeber or early October. I was going to do it next week, but I want to get a better idea of where the ACE is headed because that may really inform how much poleward Aleutian ridging we get.

I agree with your assessment.....basin-wide La Nina is normally a coin-flip with respect to poleward ridging....some act as east-based, some as Modoki with flat ridges. But I will say that we are increasingly "due" for something....anything to break "right". This would be my seventh consecutrive below average snowfall season....have to go back to 2017-2018 for a solidly above average season or even anything approaching normal.

Oh yea-I would take the over on normal temps here...which is why I said I would take that.

I would take that....my spot would probably do okay. If you run the temp departures for my polar analog composite, it looks a lot like that.