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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think a healthy cat 1 is a good bet.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    This I agree with....just saying, my money is on a better winter than last season for a lot of NE (especially SNE), even if still somewhat subpar.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, there was some sarcasm implied....
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we would do okay in this...that looks servicable enough to provide chances with the with the lower heights in Canada and the PV elongated in the general direction of the northeast.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think people are conditioned to perceive another virtually snowless winter if guidance doesn't have "1995-1996" in neon lights on the stamp.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    That still looks like a much better pattern than last year to me. Canada looks much colder and the PV is elongated towards the NE US.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think its time for one of your patented "Jeb Walks"......particularly one that takes you in the opposite direction from your keyboard.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree. That is the scenario that I laid out in my First Call last night.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Interesting...I hadn't factored the compact nature into my assessment when considering regeneration...perhaps my TX landfall intensity is conservative. Something to ponder over the weekend before taking a Final stab at it.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    The weakening at the last moment prior to landfall was expected, as the system reentered the hostile shear zone.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is where my First Call from last night went.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hmmmm....
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    No....not my focus. Not paying attention to inland track, but I don't think this will be a Harvy-like epic flood because it should keep moving. Austin will probably see some rain...
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    The decrease in foreward speed over the SW GOM may not promote that much upwelling considering the system will be much weaker...important not to lose sight of that since we are used to conceptualizing this system as a powerhouse. I think it will be speeding up again due to trough interaction closer to the coast by the time it regains hurricane strength.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Here is my First crack at Beryl....will update late Saturday night or Sunday. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/07/hurricane-beryl-moves-away-from-jamaica.html
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    With smaller islands, like Jamaica for instance, but not a large peninsula like the Yucatan.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Depends on the season....haven't known much between December and March for a few years
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    SST are about the same in the SW GOM as they are in the Caribbean, so we just have to see how much it slows down, as TCHP is def. significantly lower.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay, you aren't saying the SST don't matter...got it. I think I would still rather have the warmth be deep with 190 MPH gusts, but point absolutely taken.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Place it over cool water and it is still going to weaken, albeit at a slower pace than it would at a more deliberate rate of movement.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think I agree that it doesn't matter......yes, the fast rate of movement helps the system by limiting upwelling, but the the starting point of the latent energy is still about as high as it can possibly be. I Think that helps mitigate the detrimental impact of relatively hostile mid levels.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I remain on the aggressive side of things. Never expected as much weakening as the official forecast implied INVO Jamaica, either.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not with the wife away, no...only innies
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