40/70 Benchmark

Always hedge east of forecast track up here....at least in the absence of a full capture.

Bob was stronger, but only a small sliver of se NE was on the dirty side...where I was just NE of Boston, Bob was virtually a non-event...Gloria was more memorable.

07-08 and 08-09 are my best back to back months of December.

All you are basing that on is the ENSO subsurface....2022 is an ideal QBO analog, decent solar and very good extratropical Pacific analog.

2020 was near solar min...and you are weighting ONI too heavily...the atmosphere is going to respond in a manner that is reflective of a healthy la Nina. It won't be quite as strong as 2022, but that year is a good analog.

Yea, LES is a cheat code.

Your area is an exception bc of LES.

I could def. see this December playing out similarly. That could have easily worked out for my area with a cleaner transfer, but I agree with you that its much harder for areas further south in that pattern now vs in the past.

Not my first choice, but I will roll the dice again with a set up similar to 2022-2023...especially where I am. Not so much significantly to my south...

I know that Bluewave is going to come in and say it didn't work out because of the low heights out west due in part to the West Pac warm pool, but I think its a bit more nuanced than that....its more of an uphill battle than it was 50 years ago to be sure, but make no mistake about it....that still could have worked out and there was some bad luck involved, too.

Its means its an "antilog"....IOW, opposite pattern to what is expected. This is why Raindance is always meantioning great east coast snowfall years as antilogs over the course of the last several years.

I think there is a decent shot of: 1) The PV beginning the season somewhat weak before going to town. 2) A pretty major disruption in February-March, however, whether or not the coast reaps the benefits of said disruption is somewhat dubious.

Started looking at the extra tropical pacific a bit today...everything considered, I really like 2022 as an analog....and as bad as that season was, it defenitely left something on the table for the east coast. December and March could have been significantly better.

There is actually a pretty solid grouping. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/08/preliminary-analysis-of-polar-domain.html These relationships between solar behavior and the NAO are evident in the graph above, with reds, denoting +NAO, very evident in the declining phase of the last several solar cycles. And Blue, indicative of -NAO, prevalent in the ascending portion of the cycles. What can also be deduced from the graphic above is that while solar max seasons are not as favorable as the ascending phase of the cycle for incidences of high latitude blocking, nor are they as hostile as the descending seasons. Thus winter seasons such as 2024-2025, which are near solar max, are not entirely void of blocking. This is evident when considering the best solar analogs of 1970 and 1999. There was a split of the polar vortex on January 17, 1971, a displacement on March 20, 1971 and a displacement on March 20, 2000. While there was an easterly QBO evident during the 1970-1971 winter, the polar vortex displacement that took place in March of 2000 occurred during a westerly QBO, as will be the case this season. Thus the latter displacement seems worthy of more consideration for the coming season. When considering the three primary QBO analogs of 2016, 2020 and 2022 within a solar context, although none took place during solar max, 2022 was the closest, followed by 2016 and 2020, which is a poor solar match having taken place near solar minimum. Given that the QBO analog of 2020-2021 took place near solar minimum, the early January 2021 SSW is of least relevance as a viable analog occurrence this season. However, the February 2023 SSW, which is a better solar analog, lends more support to a later season potential polar vortex disruption along the lines of March 1971 and 2000. This notion is supported by research on high solar, westerly QBO seasons, which lends creedence the late winter/early spring displacement scenario. The postulation of a modestly disturbed polar vortex during the month of December, followed by a recovery during the middle portion of the winter, prior to a more substantial displacement of the polar vortex during either February or March is well supported by research on moderate, basin-wide La Niña events taking place near a solar maximum with a westerly QBO. This preliminary conclusion based upon a constellation of historic data can be checked against observed, concurrent data in real time.

There is actually somewhat of a signal for late season SSW during La Nina/W QBO seasons...February and March.

Then was have central-based La Ninas favoring the coldest month and least+NAO in Deceber, so I think the perponderance of the data favors more of a nomralish month of December rather than cold, before the wheels come off mid-season.

1970 is a pretty good solar match, too.

Thanks. Looks like about -1.2 in Novie for a peak.

Its usually fairly accurate within 30 or so days....

@GaWxShowed one like a month ago that I think was posted on X, but he didn't have access to the actual output, if I recall correctly...

.30".

I was intrigued by it last weekend, but it became clear by Monday that this was largely irrelevent for the CONUS (aside from surf).

I still expect a healthy moderate Nina per RONI and weak per ONI approaching moderate.

I agree.....ironically enough, eastern winter enthusiasts should be cheering on La Nina because otherwise we are entirely at the mercy of the extra tropical players. That would not leave me super optimistic given the raging solar status, W QBO and that absolutely demonic west PAC warm pool. Perhaps a boneafide La Nina will provide some bouts of poleward Aleutian ridging and an active N stream.

Sorry to hear, man.....good luck with everything. This place is a much needed escape from life. I know we don't always see eye to eye (except maybe this season lol), but its never personal.