40/70 Benchmark

Gonna preface this with the disclosure that I understand that dews and probably heat are not done with us yet, but this AM was a refreshing first harbinger of fall. Solar max is over this weekend and the heat doesn't have quite the same bite when Australian tushies begin to grill on car seats. 52.5 for the low.

I think that likely reality is much more widely accepted this season. But who knows....get an active N stream with a fortuitously timed Aleutian boner and we could steal some thunder, however fleeting it may be.

I misunderstood the implications of this last year, but I won't make that same mistake again this season.....my forecast will be off because I'll make some other assortment of mistakes.

I think the ONI lagging maybe at least partially attributable to the SOI disconnect (residual from strong El Nino), which causes that particular metric to underestimate the intensity of the cool ENSO Walker cell.....much like what was observed last season when the west PAC warm pool maked the intensity of the El Nino.

I will take an active N branch over a strong STJ any day of the week in my neck of the woods. I undersrand that its different not too far to my south and that temps are still likely to be an issue this year.

Thank you. I am still bitter about how things ended at Eastern and how the forum and everything on it is not in accessible.

So obvious guidance had backed off too much on La Nina, just like it had at this point last year with respect to el Nino. I still feel good about my ENSO peak expectations.

Yes-Ray. Thanks alot. If it's too cumbersome- don't worry about it, but if you have the time to run a hindsight of that formula for 1970, please let me know.

It will, but ironically enough that is probably a fairly accurate assessment of the peak intensity of this ENSO.

@Stormchaserchuck1, what is the current calculation for your subsurface NAO index? Could you hindcast if for the 1970-1971 winter season if you get time? TIA.

Right.

This is splittling hairs, though....I of course agree that this winter doesn't look great for the NE.

Similar to the 2021-2022 forecast, more poleward than the rest. Anyway, I said more stout than the 2016-2024 mean as in verificaiton, not the mean of all seasonal forecasts.

Its good when its warm for the east, bad when its cold...sounds reductive, but that philosophy if fail-proof over the past 9 years.

1999 is a better analog then 2011.

One thing I will say is that EURO product looks to have a pretty poleward Aleutian ridge...more stout than the 2016-2024 mean.

I haven't posted about this system once throughout its entire life. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Yes, it will def. be a strong westerly QBO..

1991, 1992 and 2011 didn't, although the former two were directly following Pinatubo, so bit of an asterisk there. Obviously the winter is very likely to average a +NAO and probably AO, but I think what this means is we may see at least one month with decent blocking, which jives with my early inclination from looking at analogs.

I like all of those analog years.

I haven't seen anyone suggest a cold December.....what I have seen is the suggestion that it will be the one month featuring temps relatively close to normal during a very mild winter.

Makes sense to me....ONI is often rubbish in this new world.

Yea, I agree that sounds ludicrous, but I do think that it could slow the rate of warming....again, that is all I took from this.

Def. grain of salt after reading this site last season and then seeing how the winter evolved....but does lend creedence to my idea that the winter shouldn't be wall-to-wall ++AO/NAO.... https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/south-pole-stratospheric-warming-winter-2024-2025-influence-forecast-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ Main points: A strong stratospheric warming event is ongoing over the South Pole. It will disrupt the southern polar vortex and help to create and sustain high-pressure anomalies on the surface. The south pole pressure forecast for August-October shows a prolonged period of high-pressure anomalies, creating a negative circulation pattern. Past data and studies show that prolonged high-pressure anomalies over the South Pole in the August-Oct period can influence the weather over the Northern Hemisphere in the following weeks/months. The most likely cause of the weather impacts is the stratospheric connection between the northern and southern polar vortex that helps to transfer the atmospheric dynamics. The prevalent signal in the data shows that strong high-pressure anomalies over the South Pole in the August-Oct period correspond to lower pressure anomalies over the United States and Canada in the Winter season. The data also shows colder-than-normal temperatures over much of the central and eastern parts of the United States. Over Europe, the prevailing signal is a high-pressure anomaly and warmer temperatures during the Winter season. The main final point: These signals and connections are not a fixed rule, as the signal is weak enough to indicate it is not a main (large) driving force of the Winter weather patterns. But it is still visible and does show some form of a role in the overall large-scale atmospheric circulation.

I didn't see any mention of the term "ice age, except from you. I was simply inferring from the article that the cessation of the Gulf Stream could act to quell the uber-rapid "hockey stick" rate of warming that he have observed recently....but I'm sure that would have some drastic implications.