40/70 Benchmark

About what I expect.

Incoming here in Chelsea....gonna focus on safety.

I think I was pretty careful with the way I articulated this.....I did say "more of a concern for the mid atl", not "SNE is in the clear". As far as your basic point, everyone in the east has resembled climo of locales further south because the past several seasons have sucked....not sure of your point, unless you are implying that this is the new norm. I think 8 years is a bit premature, but I am on record as saying I will entertain that if we get into the next decade and still in this regime. Reglardless, snowfall regression should have been expected after the bonanza last decade along the east coast. I stand by my assertion that SNE still gets more snow from the N stream than the STJ, regardless of how warm it has been.

Don't get me wrong, though....I don't mean to imply that this winter looks particularly promising for NE, either.....just not as dire as further south.

That is more of a concern for the mid atl....most snowfall in NE comes from the northern stream.

That is usually how it works in the mid atlantic since you average so little snowfall on an annual basis.....often times one storm comprises most of a season's snowfall and often that season will significantly increase the seasonal average for the decade.

I don't think it really matters whether ONI is weak or not...I expect a moderate impact event. RONI sneaking into marginally strong territory shouldn't profoundly alter that, either. What this means is that the extra tropical atmosphere should have some relevence in terms of dictating the predominate hemispheric pattern this winter, since ENSO will not be overwhelming. However, I also expect the extra tropical atmosphere to largely be congruent with the tropics, anyway, so we may still end up with a rather robust la Nina outcome in terms of sensible weather.

I would have said that I wouldn't be at all suprised by that even if you had sked me 5 years ago....independent of CC just due to simple regression.

What is the supposed relationship between sea ice and mid latitude winter? I don't really use that and can't seem to recall...thanks.

Good episode...love TWZ. I am camped out watching that every NYE and NYD.

IDK....literally the only thing I can say is that it was modest La Nina, but other than that....not so much. That season is a poor match in every respect.

I think we all understand the caveats with using analogs at this point...yep.

I also wouldn't chalk up the volcanic stuff as a certain negative, either....possible, sure. But we went through this last year and I correctly dispelled it then, even though winter was still warm due to the Pacific. We had some blocking...

Only thing I will say is that we were already past that theorized 2015 "tipping point" that accompanied that uber el nino.....which is probably why even that season managed the uber-warm February in advance of/during the SSW. But I agree with the premise that 2017 is not a good analog.

@GaWxLarry, please link that RONI forecast produt again? Thanks.

Fun at 990'.

Methuen JP.

So from what you were saying, a strong MJO 4-6 amplitude in October would be a positive (less negative, anyway) indicator for winter prospects, correct?

Yea, that's one factor, but as we well know nothing operates in a vacuum. We ultimately need to see if the other paraemters are favorable enough to overcome this.

Yea, I know I have been a voice of dissent over the past couple of years, but I'm not sure that will be the case this year. Its early, so you never know....but I don't see much reason to doubt another poor showing. Two caveats: 1) Just due to random probability, we may end up getting "more" to work in our favor this season because I'm not sure its possible to get any less than we already have. 2) If we can keep SE Canada appreciably cold, maybe we can get a favorable PV orientation something akin to 2007-2008 (forget about the record snowfall part) to save New England from another bottom dwelling season.

Its like everything else....intriguing, but we need to collect more data. On the surface, I definitely see enough to warrant a closer look.

As much as I hate the heat, it may not be the worst thing in the world to see more PNW troughing and NE ridging this summer. I have seen some posts about how this maybe part of the semi-permanent pattern we have been stuck in, whereas its PNW troughing during the winter and ridging over the summer. Maybe break that up...willing to try anything, at this point.

I imagine that there will be some very memorable coastals once we enter into a Pacific regime that isn't prohibitive...I think this is the essense of how CC is manifesting. More hostile for winter weather on average, but when it isn't....look out-

A foreign dystopian world where helium fueled Hadley Cells rule the day.

This is the specific portion I was disagreeing with.....the south coast of SNE and the mid atl, sure.