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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was only speaking to yesterday. This summer has seemed hot to me.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Classic CC fueled fraud-torch.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Historically speaking, weak El Nino has been the wheelhouse for SNE and moderate for the mid atlantic because they require more of a STJ influence.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    The first two were weak.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Something has to work out sooner rather than later for the NE.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nothing is a silver bullet, but the RONI is another tool that has some utility when used in the proper context.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Quick update on the developing La Niña. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/07/enso-proving-deceptive-once-again.html
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think you will appreciate the piece that I just finished...will lost later after proof read, etc.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why are you focusing on the upper portion of that range? Hell, I had 42" in 1998-1999....and that was whiffing on a blizzard that skirted the cape.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    My area got screwed in 2020-2021, as I missed out on some of the heavier snows just south of me..kind of caught in between, which is why I have now endured six consecutive below average snowfall seasons.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    More than one way to skin a weenie.... if we get that MJO amplitude in October, then we can probably get some nice polward Aleutian ridging episodes and pv elongation.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, @ORH_wxmanhas been saying that. Personally, I will take this.....foster a greter proclivity towards delayed meteorological gratification to be satiated by a big pay day every so often. Makes the hobby more enjoyable IMHO.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    The upside is still there and probably greater than ever before, but it just takes a more specific and unique set of cricumstances to elicit said potential.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I think its due that MC forcing groiwng more prevalent since then....not that variance is ever more crucial.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I did well that winter....correctly called those - NAO periods.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is an example of Chris' big 4-6 MJO spike in October that lead to the lower frequency during the winter, which allows for more variance.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the thing with neutral ENSO is that other factors have more proxy, so an overwhelming signal like that would be lights out.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wonder if this will render ENSO neutral more favorable than previously, as it assumre more of a weak ENSO flavor...
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    The more sunsports, the merrier.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like our chanes for a -NAO winter right at solar max, right @GaWx?
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would guess somewhat below normal snowfall here right now, though probably not as bad as last year...maybe like 40-50" or 45-55".
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    TBH, I am relieved that this season looks pretty clear-cut subpar to me because it gives me a chance to dispell some of the "cold/snow" bias that my work has bared out to date. I don't blame people for pointing that out, but its honestly a coincidence. Hopefully my past efforts have been detailed enough where those folks could follow my logic and forecast rationale to see that I wasn't just on a JB binge.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is a foregone conclusion.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    You could argue its central based, but I think that may produce a Modoki like result given the state of the extra tropical Pacific.
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