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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think this year will be better than the last two just based on shear probability, regardless of how bad things look in the grander scheme.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would be interested in seeing data concerning how rapidly winter time temp maxes are rising. I am sure that they are, believe me....but I do know that the rate of GW is being driven more so by higher mins. Again, I am SURE that maxes are also rising...believe me, but I am just interested in knowing just how fast because I know that its not as fast as daytime mins.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I just think we need to be careful about developing a recent confirmation bias....its in vouge right now to offer up a few peer reviewed arcticles on warm pools and automoatically dismiss any wintery prospect and I understand why, but we saw the same thing happen in the other direction when things were going well. its important to try to maintain an objective view.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like some relief in about a week, confused emojis be damned.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    As we have seen over the course of the past several years, Pacific drives the bus for the most part....get a few periods of some poleward Aleutian ridging and we'll have some chances. I'm sure someone will beat me over the head with images of marine heat waves and piss in the cheerios to make a warm pool...but it is what it is. Things don't have to look orgasmic on a grander scale to catch a few stochastic breaks.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    What it will do is promote more dreadful humidity.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I had 34.25"...largely due to lucking out Jan 7.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not what I said.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Here is the correct composite for the older high ACE seasons...note that poleward Aleutian ridge.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sorry about that.....sometimes I forget which is which. My mistake. I wish those were homeogeneous in that respect.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Another reason to expect a good winter around the turn of the decade, in addtion to solar min....
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Correct...my bad. I thought that looked more holstile than I was expecting. Here is 2020-2021. Looks like the composite of the older high ACE seasons.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think anyone implied that the ACE from Bery in and of itself will in fact impact the winter.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Totally fair to be skeptical of 200+ ACE....don't blame anyone for that.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, I think anytime you accumulate an ACE north of 200 there is going to be an inherently high number of recurves...we aren't going to get 30 landfalling systems.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like we get some relief late next week.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, perhaps injecting an exceedingly anamalous level of tropical energy into the mid and higher latitudes wll help facilitate such a mismatch, since it very well may have in the past.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yep.......2020 looks like a @bluewaveCC adjusted version of the older high ACE analog seasons. I think a year like that is doable, as 2020 was already high on my list.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Fell free to beat me senseless with a pillow full of s, but here is a composite of the updated CSU ACE forecast analog seasons...minus 2020, which isn't included on the older data set. Here is 2020: I think a 2020 like season is a reasonable hope for this season.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think December would be decent for once...
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly the scenario that could save the northeast in an otherwise awful seasonal pattern...pretty much what happened on 2007-2008.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think the warmth will be centered in the N plains again next season. I can buy the warmth, but don't necessari;ly agree with the orientation of it.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    DT has grown so reductive and archaic in his seasonal analysis. Nevermind that it will assuredly be a La Nina by ONI standards, the cool ENSO Walker Cell will be very potent, regardless of the ONI. I'm not sure how that is lost on him. We all miss the boat sometimes....lord knows you have all seen it happened to me, but the key is to grow from it.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Euro tempts me to quit weather.
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