40/70 Benchmark

I know that...I mean generally speaking....you always seem to have a rolodex of peer reviewed articles at your disposal to produce at a moment's notice.

That sounds like anecdotal hogwash. 2017-2018 looked much more favorable pre-season for NE winter ethusiasts due to a myriad of reasonal already stated. I will say that I also thought 2018-2019 was going to be a big winter, however, I probably wouldn't knowing what I know now about the state of the extra tropical Pacific and how it relates to ENSO. We saw an even more amplified version of this this past season.

Chris, from which site do you get most of your articles?

I think both of you are just using the ambiguity of semantics to stand one another's ground out of spite and stubborness. While 2018 was after the apparent tipping point of 2015, the planet has undoubtedly continued to warm at a rapid pace since then.

As far as the Modoki Nina the previous year, most guidance had it as basine-wide, but it shifted west very quickly early on in the season. If you sa that coming, then kudos.

You were right for the wrong reason, though. The only way you are going to become a more seasoned amateur is to acknowledge that and examine why. If you are more focused on guessing the correct numbers on a spread sheet than you are understanding why the hemisphere evolved in the manner that you did, then you aren't going to learn as much. Its like a complex math equation.....when you solve an algebra equation or calculus problem, they are more concerned with seeing how you are arrived at your solution than the actual solution itself because it is this that demonstrates an understanding of the logic and processess at play. I had to accept this back in 2015, when everyone thought I nailed that mega winter....on paper it looked accurate, but I was expecting a huge -NAO and that was all Pacific driven. In order to grow, you need to stop milking your prostate to the end game numbers and focus more on how the atmosphere arrived at said figures. You have come a long way these past few years, but what I have just laid out is the key to the next level.

Well, last season was worse than the previous year.....I will bet anyone on this board $500 that Boston sees more snow than they did last season.

Yea, that is my snowiest March on record. I was very accurate with respect to my thoughts about that season, but I can honestly tell you that I feel like I have grown more as an amatuer forecaster these past couple of years, during which I have struggled greatly, than I did then.

2017-2018 had a lot going for it....I nailed that season and it was pretty clear why NOAA was going to be off during that fall. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/11/winter-2017-2018-year-of.html Not the case here, which isn't to say that it can not, or definitively will not be good.....but odds are certianly more heavily skewed towards another dud than they were in 2017.

I don't think anyone can definiteively answer that....at least not the honest folks. In the absence of sufficient data, all we can so is observe relationships and make postulations that are tested as we go along.

Man, it triggers the shit out of me that so many SNE climo sites are AWOL for 1995-1996....my god, what a travesty.

So essentially solar max winter. What is the link to those graphics?

No, 2004-2005 was one of my favorite seasons...I had over 100", but I recalled it as near to slightly above normal, albeit very snowy in SNE.

2004-2005 was below average temps in Boston?

I'm not saying solar max is great...all things equal, we want INVO solar min, but there is more to it than that....look at 1970 and 2000....great analogs near solar max (not calling for a repeat).

I think October will be telling with respect to the MJO amplitude that you mentioned.

No argument at all. Agreed. 2022-2023 is a pretty good analog, but hopefully we will have a bit more luck this go around. The cool ENSO Walker Cell will be very formiddable, regardless of the ONI peak, which is reflected well by the RONI.

Its not the max you should be the most leery of, rather the 1-3 year stretch, thereafter....that is when the solar wind kicks up the geomagnetic energy, which bolsters the PV. Again, not to say we aren't more likely than not to have a strong PV anyway, but that post solar max even moreso.

If the solar cycle hasn't peaked yet, then that is good news for perhaps some intervals of high latitude blocking this coming winter. Notice I said "some intervals" and not a -NAO/AO season per se, as I know that may trigger @GaWx I get the westerly QBO/La Nina correlation and all...just saying, near solar max is less hostile towards periods of winter blocking than descending solar. I certaintly doesn't look good overall, so the argument becomes "just how bad does it look", which is when these factos come into play.

Makes the winter outlook easier. Funny you mention 2007 as an analog...I have mentioend that as a potential best case scenario for the NE...obviously toned down for NNE, as I don't expect 150" of snow just north of KCON.

May be tough to be very dry with all of the latent heat throughout the seas around the globe right now. If anything, it will be easier for the se and mid Atlantic, but the N stream being more prevalent makes it a taller task in the NE.

Not sure, maybe 2000-2001, 2002-2003 and 2014-2015? Only other possibility is maybe 2013-2014...

Well, drier winters are going to be harder to come by given CC... you have to also acknowledge that we are "due" for a cold winter, too then.

Its rough to tell...it gets calculated as we move forward in time and it won't always be apparent for several months when exactly the peak was. It's a fluid situation.

I'd say 4.5...still early, though...see what the tropics do.