40/70 Benchmark

I agree we are in a "rut" period akin to the 80's, only adjusted warmer due to CC....it's also a different type of "rut", since that was a +PDO period....often those winters were done in by a lack of high latitude blocking, but this period has been marked by an extra tropical Pacific regime so hostile that it has largely negated any episodes of blocking, which has become easier to do given the warmer climate.

1965-1966 was my main analog last year, but the sensible result was worlds different.

I agree with this, but the majority of models are weak right now...sure, EURO is among the weakest and likely too weak, but the moderate guidance are outliers.

Absolutely..well said. Its important to acknowledge that there was some bad luck involved, too. As fleeting and few and far between as they were, we had some explosive windows that went for not.

My opinion on why that is the case is two things: 1) You are right that people post most frequently about weather that is perceived as being intresting, which mild winters are not. 2) His posting style is very confrontational and not very welcoming...most of his interactions with others have a very incedinary, condescending undertone that invites conflict. People are turned off by that and try to avoid it...conflict is exhuasting and produces negative energy. And I know he doesn't care what people on an internet forum think of him, but it is what it is. Don't forget, I think the winter outlook thread with the most replies I have ever seen was @Stormchaserchuck1's "This will be the warmest winter on record" thread on Eastern back in the fall of 2006. Attitude has a lot to do with it....turn people off, and your work will be overlooked more because interaction with the author is viewed as a chore rather than purely an opportunity for enlightenment via a sharing of thoughts.

Yea, just speaking of that particular forecast in a theoretical sense. Not saying its going to be right, per se.

Just FYI....what is equally reprehensible and inimical to the productive dialogue that fosters learning is assigning an emotional bias to every forecast effort that verifies too cold and/or snowy. That detracts just as much as any biased forecast in and of itself. Its not advisable to impugn the efforts of others like that when there is clearly defined logic and ratioanle for why the forecast did not work out. When we have a mammoth marine heat wave working in concert with the general background GW signal to produce an unprecedented magnitude of warmth spanning an entire decade that is going to cause most seasonal forecast efforts to exhibit a cold/snowy bias in the aggregate, is it not?? Raindance has been the best and even he would admit that he hasn't been quite warm enough. I'm not even sure @bluewave, who has had a great handle on this, expected this magnitude of warmth. I think we need to cut people some slack on the cold/snow bias crap.

If its weak in terms of ONI and moderate by RONI stadards, then that shouldn't be a death knell in and of itself....but if we can't get the waves out of the MC then nothing else really matters, anyway. I have learned that the hard way over the course of the past several years.

Sure, but it wasn't that extreme....and the rest of the extra tropical Pacific was not has hostile as it has been the past few years.

I have no idea where this perception comes from. He is on a short list of "must reads" every season and there was plenty of talk that he had an unfavorable outlook yet again last fall. I'm not sure whether you have amnesia or what, but I along with some others had countless debates with him about how the forcing would not act like an east-based super el Nino....which was correct, but he was right that it would not matter. I'm not sure on which planet his opinion was "deemphasized"....nor am I sure who forecasted a colder than average winter or one with above average snowfall?? I saw some forecasts that had near normal snowfall, incluyding my own, but none were particularly robust.

Yes, this is a potential pathway for a decent (sneaky) season in the NE when it looks ostensibly very hostile yet again.

Would be congruent with his idea of a more -WPO next season.

No one should ever be "sold" on an extreme anomaly...unless its a DM warm anomaly in today's climate.

No, not for this season. That will be more of a factor for 2025-2026 if it peaks this season.

It takes a good year following solar max for the solar wind to really kick up the geomaetnic energy. Its not immediate. But regardless, obviosuly we aren't seeing a 1995-1996 or anything. lol

Which means we can probably get away with some bout(s) of blocking this year, theoretically speaking. Not suggesting it will be a favorable season per se, but perhaps not a wall-to-wall death star PV. Doesn't mean it can't end up like that, either....just something to think about-

SAL is expected this time of year....there are a few reasons that we don't usually see long-tracking CV systems in June. The earliest I recall is Bertha in early July of 1996.

Fair question with respect to anything pertaining to seasonal forecasting.

First of all, I'm not necessarily referring to a -NAO/AO season....I wrote "episodes of high latitude blocking". Second, my point is that geomagnetic energy and solar wind peak during the descending phase, not solar max...thus the descending phase is most hostile...more so than max.

If the solar peak ends up delayed, then that also delays the hostile period of geomagnetic particle disbursing solar wind that makes episodes of high latitude blocking so elusive.

Def. the warm season in a New England weather thread...

In the eyes of Tip, the Hadley Cell is responsible for everything...from climate change to sperm subsidnce (joke, John....not doubting CC)

Yep. The ONI is less and less important, anyway as the globe continues to warm.

Doubt that, but we shall see.

Yes, same page. Very fair and reasonable take.