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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. Yea, the path to said balance may not necessarily be hospitable for society.
  2. What is interesting is the implication that the cessation of the gulf stream could cause a dramtic cooling over N America and Europe at some point. I have always maintained that the planet will likely find a way to balance things out, as it usually does. We'll see....def out of my wheelhouse.
  3. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/08/02/climate/atlantic-circulation-collapse-timing
  4. I think its a given that Canada will be colder than last year, so at least New England can pull off a serivcable snowfall season if we can have some better fortune with respect to the timing of +PPs. For instace, while the jet mechanics may trigger amplification well to the west, there can still be some appreciable front end snowfalls with better timing. We haven't even had much of that the past couple of years. That is often what distinguishes a "meh" season from a truly horrendous one.
  5. As you so often point out, CC was in its relative infancy back then.
  6. If it strikes us, it will have already moved inland over the southeast. There is no scenario at play where this thing gets pulled quickly to the north just off of the coast.
  7. Ineedsnow is like the reincarnation of James.
  8. Either is fine by me considering what the last two winters have looked like. I will take a holiday season that isn't prohibitive to snowfall and feels festive.
  9. I would take a neutral December and mild rest of the winter.
  10. Totally agree. I continue to feel as though the winter will be fairly mild overall for the east, but not as exotically so as last season.
  11. Where did you relocate from in the south?
  12. Now, get the 3-4" storm on XMAS/eve XMAS, then its different...that has more value.
  13. Seasonal snowfall is what it is, though.....if you get 40" in one storm, and 3" the rest of the winter, it was still an above average snowfall season in terms of snowfall if you average 40". Sure, being above normal in terms of temps is another matter.
  14. You and Kevin should get a room in the Tundra.
  15. See, I'm the opposite...keep your three weeks of currier and ives in January......give me 42" of snow in 20 minutes in exchange for 50 degrees in Janaury.
  16. This season, on paper, looks even worse, which lends itself to the saving grace that it will probably be somewhat better.
  17. I think its a combination of CC and the peak of both a multi decadal Pacific cold phase pattern/+AMO. My guess is about 30%CC/70% the latter attribution.
  18. Tempered elation in Methuen...or Metheun, as some of us say....
  19. Yea....60% chance of .0000000000001 negative departure and 40% chance of +5.000000000000000000001
  20. I'm sure Kev will continue lathering himself up in dews most of the month, but no denying solar max ends after next week....and southern Hemisphere hineys start to simmer in cars.
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