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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    The upside is still there and probably greater than ever before, but it just takes a more specific and unique set of cricumstances to elicit said potential.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I think its due that MC forcing groiwng more prevalent since then....not that variance is ever more crucial.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I did well that winter....correctly called those - NAO periods.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is an example of Chris' big 4-6 MJO spike in October that lead to the lower frequency during the winter, which allows for more variance.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the thing with neutral ENSO is that other factors have more proxy, so an overwhelming signal like that would be lights out.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wonder if this will render ENSO neutral more favorable than previously, as it assumre more of a weak ENSO flavor...
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    The more sunsports, the merrier.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like our chanes for a -NAO winter right at solar max, right @GaWx?
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would guess somewhat below normal snowfall here right now, though probably not as bad as last year...maybe like 40-50" or 45-55".
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    TBH, I am relieved that this season looks pretty clear-cut subpar to me because it gives me a chance to dispell some of the "cold/snow" bias that my work has bared out to date. I don't blame people for pointing that out, but its honestly a coincidence. Hopefully my past efforts have been detailed enough where those folks could follow my logic and forecast rationale to see that I wasn't just on a JB binge.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is a foregone conclusion.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    You could argue its central based, but I think that may produce a Modoki like result given the state of the extra tropical Pacific.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    This looks to have some Modoki tendencies IMO.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    No doubt its coming....just a matter of whether it meets forecast expectations.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Past analogs still have utility, but you need to know how to use them and and thr adjustments to make.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    January was okay IMBY.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have been saying that...QBO is off and solar is deep descending, but I like it....
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Honest question...what is your preference, do you like cold and snow in general?
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its always reasonable to question a historic outcome in any regard, except DM warmth.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    We can't buy decent timing for highs, either....even if you get the low forced to the west, you can still cash in on the front end with a well timed +pp...but not even being able to get that is just bad luck.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    VD 2016 was more severe to your north.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    What is interesting is that we are still able to generate severe cold, but rather it is the residence time that is mitigated by CC. Intuiitively speaking it is the former that is more important for major winter storm (blizzard) genesis. We just need the right pattern.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Gonna need a few Hugo like systems to get back on track for that uber-ACE.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I remember that......that was nuts. Been a few years since we have had frigid wind gusts triggering a temp drop into the single digits during the PM.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, they usually will load west with the -PDO/RNA.
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