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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think its a combination of CC and the peak of both a multi decadal Pacific cold phase pattern/+AMO. My guess is about 30%CC/70% the latter attribution.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Less sun and more weights?
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Tempered elation in Methuen...or Metheun, as some of us say....
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea....60% chance of .0000000000001 negative departure and 40% chance of +5.000000000000000000001
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm sure Kev will continue lathering himself up in dews most of the month, but no denying solar max ends after next week....and southern Hemisphere hineys start to simmer in cars.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Some vomit-value posts in the tropical threads of late.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Tropical Storm Alberto redux.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like that range for the ONI.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    BTW, this just shows that there is an avenue for a decent season to the north....didn't mean to imply that one should be expected.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have been saying 2007 is a decent analog and that yieleded a respectable winter for most of NE.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hateras brush is the only noteworthy scenario in play.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe some support for a -AO this winter, not that I think the east would benefit from it much with the state of the Pacific....
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Zero chance of that landfalling in New England. Then again, maybe this call is as accurate as my last couple of winter calls, which means we are in trouble...but I don't see anything to capture it.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    "Final Grade for 2023-2024 Season: D" "Final Grade for 2022-2023 Season: D"
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll joking aside, so far....this appears to the easiest winter outlook that I have done since 2014. Not much ambuguity overall IMO.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Man, I would love to see Bluewave try the seasonal thing...he would be great at that. The again, maybe I wouldn't because it would make fall so much more depressing.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Must be some thinly veiled, passive aggressive pun aimed at a failed seasonal effort.....yep...you got me. Go figure, an amatreur weather hobbyist endeavoring to take on something very few pros will got it wrong. Guessing that "NoCORH4L" is the name of the weather coop that you meticulously set up in your mom's backyard on prom night.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Funny how you can get a grasp of your stalkers through emoji patterns... that @NoCORH4Lis one...I could post that the sky is blue and would post a confused emoji. I don't mean people that I know, like Kevin.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Funny how we almost need to hope La Nina goes nuts this fall to have a "lull" period in the hostile forcing during the winter....almost akin to timing the intensity cycles in the tropics in the hope that RI can lead to an ERC pre landfall.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay, I get it. Interesting.....
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    @ineedsnowgives me the "huh" emoji for posting "zzzzzzzz" then likes a post opining that the only threat currently on the map won't develop. Gotcha-
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    2017-2018 was a weak La Nina...close to moderate, but defintely not strong. Not debating the point RE the MJO...
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the useless 1996 storm.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we would need the ONI on the positive side of neutral given the base state of the extra tropical Pacific....either way, I agree it doesn't look great for NE winter. "Best case" in terms of ENSO maybe a cold-neutral ONI....
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably will.
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