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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    He called it an east-based La Nina...that should prompt @snowman19to burn one or two of his 5PPD.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the EURO, like a lot of seasonal guidance, ran astray last year because it defaulted too heavily to stock ENSO...we may be seeing that somehwat heare. Probably not to the same degree given the background state right now, but I think we are going to start see that shift a bit moving forward.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it will be as bad as the EURO...probably a compromise between that and the CFS/CANSIPS
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wish it could be viewed monthly like the CFS.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefully it goes to shit when the wife goes into labor
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think February kills DJF....I don't think December into perhaps a bit of January will be bad.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like the polar domain is servicable for December and into perhaps part of January and then goes to crap....this aligns with my thinking, but I also think we may try to get blocky late again.
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  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it will be a nationwide torch....I think JB is probably doing what the Pats are doing....just punting on the season...he probably figured its a good opportunity to try to repair his image and just go full throttle warmth. Assuming we don't have a big +WPO aain, which I doubt...no reason Canada and the entirety of the northern tier US should roast.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    My research has shown that Modoki La Nina are often coldest in December, but not necessarily cold....whereas east based evens often get colder later. But this event isn't Modoki, anyway.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Should be a decent December....enter Bluewave stressing the need for a disconnect followed by a slew of charts illustrating why it won't happen.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like December has the most favorable NAO on the EURO...slightly negative..January around neutral and then a toaster bath for Feb. PNA is also servicable in December before tanking.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do feel like some sort of very memorable weather is on the not too distant horizon, whether it be of the tropical of winter variety....not often you get the PDO and AMO both ready to flip at the same time, so this extended period of quisiescence is probably on borrowed time. Just a hunch.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is the time of year I can tolerate it....like an early April Sun, so its not so debilitating and you know the dew days are numbered.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yep.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    My snowiest December on record.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    ENE
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    This fits the pattern that I saw with respect to the NAO in westerly QBO La Nina with high solar.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that season still ended up behaving very much like an el Nino....some nice March snow, as well.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    CANSIPS shows this.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I remember October 2007 was very warm before it flipped for an epic December up here.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Solar is definitely a factor... clear dichotomy between high and low solar with respect to tropical activity. Bluewave is a genius, but he loves to tie everything to CC....pretty sure that is where he is headed (Saharan rainfall increase) with downplaying the role of the solar cycle. Truth is that they probably both play a role. I don't mean to criticize him either....but we all have certain biases and proclivities. Posters are like models...learn the tendencies.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Last season was a perfect illustration of this....if you viewed everything through the lens of yesteryear, 1957 looked like a decent analog. This is the trap that I fell into.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes...CC is exacerbating the preexisiting sample size issue.
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