40/70 Benchmark

There is actually a pretty solid grouping. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/08/preliminary-analysis-of-polar-domain.html These relationships between solar behavior and the NAO are evident in the graph above, with reds, denoting +NAO, very evident in the declining phase of the last several solar cycles. And Blue, indicative of -NAO, prevalent in the ascending portion of the cycles. What can also be deduced from the graphic above is that while solar max seasons are not as favorable as the ascending phase of the cycle for incidences of high latitude blocking, nor are they as hostile as the descending seasons. Thus winter seasons such as 2024-2025, which are near solar max, are not entirely void of blocking. This is evident when considering the best solar analogs of 1970 and 1999. There was a split of the polar vortex on January 17, 1971, a displacement on March 20, 1971 and a displacement on March 20, 2000. While there was an easterly QBO evident during the 1970-1971 winter, the polar vortex displacement that took place in March of 2000 occurred during a westerly QBO, as will be the case this season. Thus the latter displacement seems worthy of more consideration for the coming season. When considering the three primary QBO analogs of 2016, 2020 and 2022 within a solar context, although none took place during solar max, 2022 was the closest, followed by 2016 and 2020, which is a poor solar match having taken place near solar minimum. Given that the QBO analog of 2020-2021 took place near solar minimum, the early January 2021 SSW is of least relevance as a viable analog occurrence this season. However, the February 2023 SSW, which is a better solar analog, lends more support to a later season potential polar vortex disruption along the lines of March 1971 and 2000. This notion is supported by research on high solar, westerly QBO seasons, which lends creedence the late winter/early spring displacement scenario. The postulation of a modestly disturbed polar vortex during the month of December, followed by a recovery during the middle portion of the winter, prior to a more substantial displacement of the polar vortex during either February or March is well supported by research on moderate, basin-wide La Niña events taking place near a solar maximum with a westerly QBO. This preliminary conclusion based upon a constellation of historic data can be checked against observed, concurrent data in real time.

There is actually somewhat of a signal for late season SSW during La Nina/W QBO seasons...February and March.

Then was have central-based La Ninas favoring the coldest month and least+NAO in Deceber, so I think the perponderance of the data favors more of a nomralish month of December rather than cold, before the wheels come off mid-season.

1970 is a pretty good solar match, too.

Thanks. Looks like about -1.2 in Novie for a peak.

Its usually fairly accurate within 30 or so days....

@GaWxShowed one like a month ago that I think was posted on X, but he didn't have access to the actual output, if I recall correctly...

.30".

I was intrigued by it last weekend, but it became clear by Monday that this was largely irrelevent for the CONUS (aside from surf).

I still expect a healthy moderate Nina per RONI and weak per ONI approaching moderate.

I agree.....ironically enough, eastern winter enthusiasts should be cheering on La Nina because otherwise we are entirely at the mercy of the extra tropical players. That would not leave me super optimistic given the raging solar status, W QBO and that absolutely demonic west PAC warm pool. Perhaps a boneafide La Nina will provide some bouts of poleward Aleutian ridging and an active N stream.

Sorry to hear, man.....good luck with everything. This place is a much needed escape from life. I know we don't always see eye to eye (except maybe this season lol), but its never personal.

I really wasn't suggesting that they were viable winter analogs....just an anecdotal, "hey btw"...that said, I think its more difficult to predict a bottom-feeder snowfall season if that ACE gets over about 200 or so.

Must be having a bad day...maybe triggered by the relase of the Farmer's Almanac?

I'm pretty sure that was light-hearted, man....

At least we have this....pretty good winer composite right there.

None of those years sucked for snowfall the ensuing winter...at least there is that-

Interesting 1999 is on that list, as that is one of my top analogs.

I can't stand when people try to chase pots of gold at the end of rainbow as tropical systems execute a parabolic recurve underneath SNE......the notion that it may not miss is the largest fraudulent illusion in all of meteorology in the absence of a mechanism to capture and pull it north. I kind of liken i to weenies holding out hope that a bit more radiational cooling than forecast will buy them more snow as a major low cuts to their west the next day.

Suprise, suprise, the composite rolled forward sucks.

It really won't be very close and is not at all compelling.

I am hopeful for a seasonal December....at this point, give me a seasonal holiday period, and then you can shit down my throat the rest of the way and I'd be content.

Yea, I think that was related to the +IOD and El Nino hangover.

Combo of +IOD La Nina coming out of an El Nino with the onset of the +AMO near solar min was a perfect storm.