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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its definitely not going to be a picturesque H5 plot for NE winter aifionados...I think that is a given. ...but that doesn't mean we can't get some more unconventional means of winter weather delivery. Key will be poleward ridging and shape/orientation of PV, etc.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Often the most difficult ones to predict end up being the ones perceived as being easy leading in because we are usually missing something. I think 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 are the pathways to better winter outcomes.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Would go along with the idea of a slightly distubred PV early on before it really consolidates.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Fair enough....we generally agree.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I didn't say "drive".....it enhanced it.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its enhacing convection over the MC, which is congruent with cool ENSO forcing. This is why 2022-2023 featured one of the most powerful cool ENSO Walker Cells on record, despte only registering -1.0 ONI.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think I agree with that in terms of La Nina, as the west Pac warm pool, which is augmenting the impact of cool ENSO, appears at least somethwhat attributable to CC....this is why RONI is about .5 more robust than ONI. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    @Stormchaserchuck1Do you have any sort of data to back up your +NAO/+PNA link?
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree that winter looks bleak...just saying, not sure this season will be the most glimmering illustration of how ENSO is losing relevence...at least not ostensibly, anyway.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, regardless of whether you want to attribute it to ENSO or the west Pacific, the hemispohere will be cool ENSO like this season.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    @weatherwizHave you noticed the site to use the 1951-2010 and other climo periods isn't working? https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/index.html
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think you are obfuscating the trend towards a weaker peak ONI of La Nina and the tendency for CC to partially negate ENSO....I think the latter issue was more prevalent last season when we had an El Nino. If anything, the opposite is the case this season....and RONI reflects that. A giant west PAC warm pool will accentuate cool ENSO and attenuate warm ENSO.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, its the Kevin Wood Oscillation.....alway s+ 3/1 through 9/30 and - from 10/1 through 2/28(29).
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    2022 is high, high on my analog list.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is in actually incorrect.....they can all have an impact, but said impact differs based upon size and location.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its all climo....once the KWO flips negative on 10/1, far, far different tunes will be sung.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think what will help is that we are resigned to it....I don't think anyone is overly optimistic. That is probably when our shit luck flips.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sorry to hear. My dad has been gone just over 10 years now.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we may begin to see some chinks in the armor of the PAC cold phase following this La Nina, but I agree its not happening for this cold season.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its too late to have an impact for the coming winter, anyway.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, its called August.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Rather get out and do something when my balls won't be stuck to my leg.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree!!
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can't wait until it's dark by 4pm.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Man rain, tonight.
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