40/70 Benchmark

Well, when its been the most prominent feature for half of a decade, I think its a more viable indicator than the average bear.

Current guidance:

Here is 2023

Look at the disparity between the relatively high amplitude those years and 2022, which went into the shitter.

October 2021

October 2020

CFS seems to offer up some blocking working in conjunction with a PNA pattern, so perhaps some early cool shots in the offing. Obviously this doesn't really mean much in terms of winter and if anything, it could be a subtle negative since there is a modest negative correlation with this month and the cold season. All of that said, October is the first month that usually does offer some viable indicators that have some winter utility. The MJO is one factor I will be keeping close tabs this month, as @bluewavehas made some pretty astute obs concerning the connection between amplified maritime forcing (phases 4-6) during the month of October and deviation or disconnect from this hostile paradigm during the ensuing cold season (2020-2021, 2021-2022). The recent seasons that had a lower amplitude during this month ended up having a higher amplitude during the winter, which obviously kept the east milder with a greater dearth of a more wintry interlude.

2007 is a good analog save for the solar, as you said....but you can probably find faults with most of the ideal solar analogs, as well. I expect the RONI to end up a bit weaker than 2007.

I think it depends on locale....there was a good bit of bad luck for my area, but it was more pattern further south.

2022 is an outstanding analog....no analog will be perfect, so dismiss it at your own peril.

All guidance was too far west with landfall, but globals were better. Hurricane models were furthest west.

Nearly Flawless Forecast for Historic Hurricane Helene Due to Lessons Learned from Michael Intensity Forecast Slightly Underestimated Very Strong Track Forecast The track forecast for historic Hurricane Helene was absolutely immaculate from First Call issued on Tuesday and was unchanged with the issuance of Final Call on Thursday. The forecast rationale that all of the guidance, including the National Hurricane Center were underestimating how quickly a hurricane as powerful and vertically stacked as Helene would begin to feel the influence of the incoming trough and veer somewhat to the east. The intensity forecast, while accurate overall, was not flawless. Landfall Intensity Underestimated The evolution of the intensity forecast was exceptionally accurate, as First Call explicitly articulated that the system would not undergo any rapid intensification until after dawn on Thursday and instead only intensify gradually through Wednesday night, which its precisely what took place. The system was somewhat disrupted when it skirted the northeastern most tip of the Yucatan, as anticipated and then began to rapidly intensify after dawn on Thursday. Final Call "In fact, poleward ventilation of Helene may be enhanced as a result of the approaching trough's initial interaction with the system in addition to what is obviously likely to be a very moist airmass in the mid levels of the atmosphere". This unique type on interaction with the trough was correctly identified as the type that allows for significant intensification right to the coast. This is very analogous to the the type of scenario that was misdiagnosed by Eastern Mass Weather with respect to Hurricane Michael in October of 2018. Although the forecast was certainly superior to the one with respect to Michael, which called for significant weakening, Helene even intensified slightly more aggressively than anticipated Thursday into Thursday evening. This was on display via numerous very vidid lightening strikes within the eyewall throughout the night on final approach to the coast. It ultimately made landfall with 140 mph maximum sustained winds instead of the forecast for 125 mph at 11:10pm EDT instead of the forecast 12:00am EDT. FINAL GRADE: A

Excellent overall forecast for Hurricane Helene...exact locale and 50 minutes too late. Precise timing of the Rapid intensification window from early Thursday AM through landfall late evening. Really only flaw was being 15mph too conservative on max winds at landfall. Final Grade: A https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/09/nearly-flawless-forecast-for-historic.html

Wow...you never want to see TS Alberto flood records challenged or exceeded.

Yea, but I bet they will find some absolutely vicious, tornado like tree damage down where only the alligators reside.

Not bad...had that spot pegged on Tuesday First Call...will do the full post mortem tomorrow night. It was obvious most guidance was erroneously west, as was NHC.

That will be wiped.

Like cat 2

Up to 6.3' in Clearwater Beach

Old school like a kid again with TWC on in the background...their coverage is watchable again.

Same...thought it was a typo.

WeenieAir

Is there a source for this All time?