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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....I said "run-of-the-mill ABOVE AVERAGE season....take it from 85" or so to like 58", which is a nice season but nothing too out of the ordinary.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    It doesn't amaze me...the currents are totally different...same reason why CA doesn't hey canes and the Carolinas do.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, but Beryl does.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think 2013 was high solar, as well...obviously the Pacific was much different, but underscores the point that you can't become over reliant on any one indicator with respect to seasonal forecasting.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think there was more to the meager 2001 season than just the high solar...1970 was also high solar, so it's not an automatic "game over ". A vortex stationed over AK in the seasonal mean is.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I highly doubt it doesn't reach weak Nina status, but we'll see...guidance has been trending that way. Good news is that the cool ENSO Walker Cell should not be as potent as it was during the 2022-2023 season, so if we get a similar set up, the east coast could cash in a bit more.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    And this really has nothing to do with winter, Scott...I'm not going big winter, regardless of what the ACE looks like. TBH, one of the best analogs was a high ACE, mild winter. If you look at most of the snowy, high ACE seasons, they were near solar min, so there are other factors at play here.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree and I'm not, either...especially the snowless part.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    The one metric is what it is....I mean, take the blizzard if '78 out of '77-'78 and it was just a run-of-the-mill above average snowfall season. It doesn't matter that it is one storm...it was a cat 5 over multiple days in early July, which is a tremendously anomalous testament to the ingredients at play this season.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Even that one...NDB NW of I95.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....but take the most significant storm out of any season and it alters the perception of it rather dramatically...tropics or winter.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Early March is absolutely not too late for the northeast.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    It can take up to a month..certainly not 2. It didn't come too late...it took place in early March. It didn't work out because of the huge RNA that occurred simultaneously.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was gonna say....Bluewave is from NYC....you know summer is on the way out when Keven migrates south to other subforms to gather ammo against seasonal change.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Still my favorite hurricane....never forget pulling my first all nighter for a hurricane as an 11 year old...you know it was nuts when TWC skipped the usual dead-time programming from 2-5am when they keep recycling the 1am programming.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    We are still so far ahead of normal with ACE, though....I feel like this is analogous to when people bitch about being caught in a subsidence slot for a few hours during blizzards only to forget about it 4 hours later when they pull 3"/hr. I mean, we probably aren't catching 2005, but not worried about it falling short of hyperactive at this point. Guess we settle for 20" instead of 30"-
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I made it pretty clear here why solar max/W QBO/cool ENSO is a pretty good bet for late blocking. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/08/preliminary-analysis-of-polar-domain.html Again, that does NOT necessarily mean big snow and cold to the east coast..as we saw in March 2023. This not the worst composite for blocking...descending solar is.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    1999 and 2022 are two of the best analogs IMO.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    La Nina +QBO and active solar favors late blocking, which is why I predicted March 2023 well, despite it not working out for the coast.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Solidly, sure..Chuck and I came up with around .50 DM....his may trend up to about .75, though...
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Obviously the Pacific is more important, so it could still be very mild, regardless of the NAO.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it's going to be an extremely positive NAO season, which is backed up by @Stormchaserchuck1's subsurface formula.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Happy 32nd birthday, Andrew!
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just 2000? Note sure about 1951 and 1962 in terms of QBO and solar...anyway, I don't expect a huge winter, regardless.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Social media is like an epidemic amongst the met community...so many affected.
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