40/70 Benchmark

PDO should start of flip later this decade, along with the AMO.

Right...that is what I was saying to you the other day, after raindance mentioned it. Probably not a huge factor for this winter, but just something to be aware of.

Beauty of central air....

A large proportation of the annual snowfall on the east coast is dirty...meaning that it isn't produced via a Benchmark bomb....imperfect set ups that yield messy returns is how a lot of it comes.

I had over 80" in 2007-2008 that way....systems cutting west running into antecedent cold. I don't expect 80", but you get the point.

Those should still get us in C/SNE with some snow, regardless of whether it ends up a mess. This is what I was saying to Bluewave about why we have also been unlucky...we haven't even been able to time a high right to get that more often than not over the past several years.

I know December 2022 was mild, but that is due to the record RNA rendering the blocking moot....ALL of the cold dumped west. It shouldn't be quite so extreme this year.

I feel pretty strongly that December isn't going to be downright hostile...if there isn't NAO/AO blocking, then there should be poleward ridging. I feel better about March for the NAO/AO domain. Remember, while the solar considerations are bit more hostile for blocking than in 2022, the La Nina is less so. Its going to be a bit weaker and more east-based.

If I had your eleveation, then I'd really be sitting pretty. I'm only about 150' here on the interior coastal plane near the MA/NH border.

@PhiEaglesfan712Your thought process is very similar to mine about 3 years ago....you know your stuff, but your thought process surrounding analogs is a bit too reductive and all or nothing. You need to assume a more nuanced approach to analogs and instead of looking to entirely dispell of endorse a particular season, look for the elements that provide value as an analog and those that do not. This is especilly important when we have a basin-wide La Nina such as this one, as these type of events often have mixed characteristics of west and east based events. For instance, I used to only look at seasons that we basin-wide and weak given that is the expectation for this La Nina, but there are just too many variables to be that honed in as far as analog criteria goes. There maybe La Nina seasons in other designations that are far better exatra tropical Pacific matches and or solar matches, for instance.

See, this is why I think New England has a shot to do well....2022-2023 would have been pretty good with anything less than record low western CONUS heights, which 2007-2008 is a wonderful illustration of.

We are not getting a Pacific as favorable as 2017-2018....zero chance. Nor will there be as much blocking.

There is a flaw with any analog because they aren't replica seasons...they are analog seasons. 2007 was already well into La Nina territory per ONI and the MEI during winter of 2022-2023 wasn't much higher than it is now...the extra tropical Pacific is very similar. The QBO state and position near solar Max also render it a pretty good polar analog. Both seasons are good analogs. Good luck with that Aleutian trough....let me know how that works out.

The Cansips looks pretty good, too.

Xmas eve.....

How do people live there??

I don't think the west coast troughing will be as extreme.

2022 is a very good analog...been saying that all summer.

I don't think it's going to be a ++WPO like last year...

I get that the aggregatre anomalies in the mean are all that matter for purposes of verification, but those little idosyncracies matter come cold season. No one cares if Windsor, VT only hits 21 instead of 18 on a clear Tuesday night in January, if 31 abd snowing a few days later.

I was in Uganda for that one.

I get it can be annoying to see someone seemingly trying to evade responsibility for a busted forecast in search of validation, but there is always a reason for every busted forecast and I think determining said reason is the important part of forecasting. We all miss some...especially at a seasonal timescale.

Could also end up beng one of those CC patented, fradulent "warm" months when it seems cool during our day-to-day activities, but warmth is realized while we sleep under the cover of night.

I agree. This weekend looks reasonably warm, I think...nothing savage, but...

Would love that to persist into the cold season.