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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am conflicted because as much as I love snow and winter, I also love being right and I need the pattern to go to shit to not end up with egg on my fact for the month of December. I still think we are quite mild by Christmas.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is the scenario that I ultimately went with. Over the summer and early into the fall, if you followd my updates, I was advertising a weak to moderate La Nina with the 2008-2009 event as the floor. However, later in the fall it became clear that the "floor"scenario was becoming most likely.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    My idea of a big -WPO this season is certainly off to a good start.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good luck with that.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ukie is a nice illustration of the limitations of this system...the ceiling is an elevation event. Next (AFIC)-
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    1996. 1997 was the 8"/hr bomb in Ayer on the eve of Xmas eve.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is the first year I have addressed the WPO, which is in response to having it derail my outlook last year.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have zero doubt it will be different this year. If you read my work from last week, the WPO signal was pretty glaring..right up there with 2013.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Lots of idiots on social media hyping a Black Friday Blizzard.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not the worst thing in the world to lay down a pack in NNE for the onset of climo winter.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think a couple of inches of slop are possible for me, albeit not particularly likely.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Gonna decide tomorrow whether or not its worth previewing this.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this season will be better than last in large part due to the WPO ...agreed.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Except for the breezy 50s on Xmas.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like the 14th at Funky.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Will warm up later December.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would take any type of residual cover from that and run.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have come into to this season with the "believe when see" mindset. People forget how good things looked going into last December and it completely evaporated. I don't expect this December to be that warm, but point remains.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, @WinterWolfwill be happy to know that Scott's November forecast is saved at the 11th hour!!
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I can't wait to score a couple of cold rainers before it warms up in time for Xmas so social media can brag about how wintry the month was.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I figured it was awful where most live when I saw you post this.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I thought the end of November and start of December would be wintry, bit its lasting longer than I had thought.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...I see a lot of football spiking on social media...these morons were poking fun at seasonal forecasts that included any semblance of a southeast ridge and a warm east/cold west alignment. My response was "its November".
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm def. nervous about my +3 to +5 Dec range, but I'm not waiving any white flags yet. I think the lower end of that is still very doable.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eh...yea, our December idea is in peril, but I'm not sure we don't still end up +3ish on the month when its 60 on Xmas. Only thing I will concede is the cold looks to last longer than I implied.
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