40/70 Benchmark

I agree it will probably take 2-3 years to transition out of this when in fact we do...but we don't necessarily need a big +PDO to get a Modoki El Nino.

Yes. This concept is continuously lost on people, so I have began to covey the progeression of the season using "sensible weather" analogs for each month, which is different from the DM seasonal composite....the latter is what compiles that list of years that I believe has utilty for the season in one way or another. I think this helps to distinguish which elements of each analog season are most relevent to this year.

Well, the counter point of view is that we should be skeptical of large scale continuity shifts in the way that we devise these seasonal formulations and couple this with the inate resistance to change that most humans possess...and yea, some busted seasonals over the course of the past few years.

Yep.

Thankfully its over in Methuen.

This is why the PDO is near record negative territory despite the warmth off of the California coast, which is traditonally indicative of a +PDO. Its becoming increasingly important for forecasters to assume a wholistic approach in global analysis because the unprecedented degree of warmth around the planet is limiting how much can be gleaned from focusing on any single node or geographical area. Whereas in the past we focused on areas of warmth in our assessment of the anticipated pattern it has now becoming apparent that relativity is of the utmost importance since the planet is a sea of warmth. This is the flawed lens through which I viewed ENSO last season. I focused on the orientation of SSTs within the ENSO region when there was larger pool of greater warmth to the west. The warmth off of the CA coast this year represents a similar trap with respect to the PDO.

Was there any resistance to the notion of a -PDO this winter? I'm not trying to be an ass....I'm honestly am not sure what can be gleaned from this because everyone was already resigned to it.

27.9 was the low 30.6 now

I hit 32.5 Tues AM

38.1 Only hit 36.0 this AM

Will take the 70s and sun on Sunday..bouncey castle for my daughter's 5th.

I would love to do that if I were closer.

My DM H5 and temp composites are done...now comes the time consuming task of writing it up and figuring out the seasonal progression. Should be out second week of Novie, as usual.

I remember there was some thought that last year was the solar max and it just kept rising, so we'll have to see. Given that the ascending phase if most favorable for high latitude blocking, we are probably a little less prone than 2022 was to amplified abouts of -AO/NAO.

Yay, a winter of solar orgies!

I know folks like to shit on the climate guidance, but I think they are going to have a better idea than they did last season, since ENSO is congruent with the predominate hemispheric background state of the past several years.

On paper, I would agree....but careful of an instance like Dec 22, whereas you get one huge -AO month that skews the mean. That season is a very good analog and is also an illustration of why blocking is not impossible in a high solar/+QBO-La Nina.

This isn't very scientific, but we are "due" for some of those little nuances to go our way. Obviously seasonal forecasing is a next to impossible endeavor due to most of our skill being relegeated to the medium range, as you point out, so at the end of the day it often comes down to anecdotal, educated hunches.

We have had a good deal of -AO these past several years...I think I could buy that argument more with respect to the NAO.

Yea, its def. tougher to say with the gap in data.

The ONI is def. going to be towards the less snowy group...with the exception of 2017 and 2021. I continue to think a season like 2021-2022 is doable, whereas we got the one very good stretch.

MJO seems to end up reasonably amplified this month....

No way. My rationale is in here. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/09/consensus-aligning-with-expectations.html?m=1