40/70 Benchmark

I don't think it will be a nationwide torch....I think JB is probably doing what the Pats are doing....just punting on the season...he probably figured its a good opportunity to try to repair his image and just go full throttle warmth. Assuming we don't have a big +WPO aain, which I doubt...no reason Canada and the entirety of the northern tier US should roast.

My research has shown that Modoki La Nina are often coldest in December, but not necessarily cold....whereas east based evens often get colder later. But this event isn't Modoki, anyway.

Should be a decent December....enter Bluewave stressing the need for a disconnect followed by a slew of charts illustrating why it won't happen.

Looks like December has the most favorable NAO on the EURO...slightly negative..January around neutral and then a toaster bath for Feb. PNA is also servicable in December before tanking.

I do feel like some sort of very memorable weather is on the not too distant horizon, whether it be of the tropical of winter variety....not often you get the PDO and AMO both ready to flip at the same time, so this extended period of quisiescence is probably on borrowed time. Just a hunch.

This is the time of year I can tolerate it....like an early April Sun, so its not so debilitating and you know the dew days are numbered.

Yep.

My snowiest December on record.

ENE

This fits the pattern that I saw with respect to the NAO in westerly QBO La Nina with high solar.

Yea, that season still ended up behaving very much like an el Nino....some nice March snow, as well.

CANSIPS shows this.

I remember October 2007 was very warm before it flipped for an epic December up here.

Solar is definitely a factor... clear dichotomy between high and low solar with respect to tropical activity. Bluewave is a genius, but he loves to tie everything to CC....pretty sure that is where he is headed (Saharan rainfall increase) with downplaying the role of the solar cycle. Truth is that they probably both play a role. I don't mean to criticize him either....but we all have certain biases and proclivities. Posters are like models...learn the tendencies.

Last season was a perfect illustration of this....if you viewed everything through the lens of yesteryear, 1957 looked like a decent analog. This is the trap that I fell into.

Yes...CC is exacerbating the preexisiting sample size issue.

"Snowfall up to thy knickers on the level dissapeared with the hastiness of a summer dress".

Elephant in the room.....the omniprescent issue within the context of all atmospheric research is the relative dearth of data/sample size.

Yea, that is reasonable for as long as said heat waves remian as presently constituted.

I think a lot of this is perfectly valid to call into question, but this idea of the West PAC warm pool permanently altering things should still be viewed as the alternative viewpoint...IOW, assume large scale oscillations will continue to operate relatively similiarly to how they have for the past 200 years plus until proven otherwise. Its akin to being up 3-0 in a series and feeling like you have the upperhand when you win one in a best-of-seven. You're still down 3-1 and are probably losing. If we hit the early 2030's and nothing has changed and Bluewave continues to prance nude in phase 5 unabated, then perhaps we have the 2004 Red Sox on our hands.

There will probably be some variations moving forward, so I see what Chris is saying on some level.....but I highly doubt a discontinuation of the cycles.

I think its logical to conclude that maybe we don't see a -AMO cycle reach the depths of what we have in the past....

Looks like to me there may been back in the 1800s.